المؤلفون: Kekre, Rohan, Lenel, Moritz

المصدر: American Economic Review; Jun2024, Vol. 114 Issue 6, p1650-1691, 42p

مصطلحات موضوعية: INTERNATIONAL finance, BUSINESS cycles, RISK sharing, BONDS (Finance), INTERNATIONAL air travel, CAPITAL financing, RISK premiums, SHARING economy

مصطلحات جغرافية: UNITED States

مستخلص: We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the United States than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium, and the United States holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility, US external adjustment, and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines. (JEL E32, E43, E44, E52, F44, G11, G15) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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المؤلفون: Bayer, Christian, Born, Benjamin, Luetticke, Ralph

المصدر: American Economic Review; May2024, Vol. 114 Issue 5, p1211-1247, 37p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, INCOMPLETE markets, FRICTION, MARKETING models

مستخلص: We show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach. To render estimation feasible, the structure of the economy can be exploited and the dimensionality of the model automatically reduced based on the Bayesian priors. We apply this approach to analyze how much inequality matters for the business cycle and vice versa. Even when the model is estimated on aggregate data alone and with a set of shocks and frictions designed to match aggregate data, it broadly reproduces observed US inequality dynamics. (JEL D31, D52, E12, E32, E52, E62) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Schmieder, Johannes F., von Wachter, Till, Heining, Jörg

المصدر: American Economic Review; May2023, Vol. 113 Issue 5, p1208-1254, 47p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, BUSINESS losses, LAYOFFS, COST, WAGES

مصطلحات جغرافية: GERMANY

مستخلص: We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. These losses increase with duration of nonemployment. Changes in characteristics of displaced workers or displacing firms, and other post-job loss career outcomes explain little of the cyclicality. (JEL E24, E32, J31, J63, J64, J65) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Bernanke, Ben S.

المصدر: American Economic Review; May2023, Vol. 113 Issue 5, p1143-1169, 27p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, FINANCIAL crises, BOND market, BANK loans, INFORMATION asymmetry, GREAT Recession, 2008-2013

مستخلص: Credit markets, including the market for bank loans, are characterized by imperfect and asymmetric information. These informational frictions can interact with other economic forces to produce periods of credit-market stress, in which intermediation is unusually costly and households and businesses have difficulty obtaining credit. A high level of credit-market stress, as in a severe financial crisis, may in turn produce a deep and prolonged recession. I present evidence that financial distress and disrupted credit markets were important sources of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Changes in the state of credit markets also play a role in " garden-variety" business cycles and in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy. (JEL D82, E32, E44, E52, G21, N22) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: CHAHROUR, RYAN, NIMARK, KRISTOFFER, PITSCHNER, STEFAN

المصدر: American Economic Review; Dec2021, Vol. 111 Issue 12, p3872-3922, 51p, 1 Diagram, 2 Charts, 17 Graphs

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, GREAT Recession, 2008-2013

مستخلص: We formalize the editorial role of news media in a multisector economy and show that media can be an independent source of business cycle fluctuations, even when they report accurate information. Public reporting about a subset of sectoral developments that are newsworthy but unrepresentative causes firms across all sectors to hire too much or too little labor. We construct historical measures of US sectoral news coverage and use them to calibrate our model. Time-varying media focus generates demand-like fluctuations that are orthogonal to productivity, even in the absence of non-TFP shocks. Presented with historical sectoral productivity, the model reproduces the 2009 Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Kohlhas, Alexandre N., Walther, Ansgar

المصدر: American Economic Review; Sep2021, Vol. 111 Issue 9, p2879-2925, 47p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, MACROECONOMIC models, ATTENTION, PROFESSIONAL standards, EXTRAPOLATION

مستخلص: We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E23, E27, E32) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Pennings, Steven

المصدر: American Economic Review; May2021, Vol. 111 Issue 5, p1689-1719, 31p

مصطلحات موضوعية: SOCIAL Security (United States), MONETARY unions, BUSINESS cycles, LANGUAGE transfer (Language learning), PAYMENT, GREEN cards, EVIDENCE

مستخلص: US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited with helping to stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these transfers using plausibly exogenous regional variation in temporary stimulus payments and permanent Social Security benefit increases. States that received larger transfers tended to grow faster contemporaneously, with a multiplier of around 1.5 for permanent transfers and 1/3 for temporary transfers. Results are broadly consistent with an open-economy New Keynesian model. At business cycle frequencies, cross-region transfer multipliers are not large, suggesting only modest gains in regional stabilization from US federal automatic stabilizers. (JEL E12, E32, E62, H23, H55, R12) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Winberry, Thomas

المصدر: American Economic Review; Jan2021, Vol. 111 Issue 1, p364-396, 33p

مصطلحات موضوعية: INVESTMENTS, BUSINESS cycles, INTEREST rates, ECONOMIC stimulus, GROSS domestic product, RECESSIONS

مستخلص: I study the aggregate implications of micro-level lumpy investment in a model consistent with the empirical dynamics of the real interest rate. The elasticity of aggregate investment with respect to shocks is procyclical because more firms are likely to make an extensive margin investment in expansions than in recessions. Matching the dynamics of the real interest rate is key to generating this result because it disciplines the interest-elasticity of investment and avoids counterfactual behavior of the model that would otherwise eliminate most of the procyclical responsiveness. Therefore, data on interest rates place important discipline in aggregating micro-level investment behavior. (JEL D25, E13, E22, E23, E43, G31, H25) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Decker, Ryan A., Haltiwanger, John, Jarmin, Ron S., Miranda, Javier

المصدر: American Economic Review; Dec2020, Vol. 110 Issue 12, p3952-3990, 39p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, ECONOMIC shock, EMPLOYMENT, LABOR productivity, BUSINESS conditions, BUSINESS models

مستخلص: The pace of job reallocation has declined in the United States in recent decades. We draw insight from canonical models of business dynamics in which reallocation can decline due to (i) lower dis persion of idiosyncratic shocks faced by businesses, or (ii) weaker marginal responsiveness of businesses to shocks. We show that shock dispersion has actually risen, while the responsiveness of business-level employment to productivity has weakened. Moreover, declining responsiveness can account for a significant fraction of the decline in the pace of job reallocation, and we find suggestive evidence this has been a drag on aggregate productivity. (JEL D24, E24, E32, J21, J23, J24, L60) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: CROUZET, NICOLAS, MEHROTRA, NEIL R.

المصدر: American Economic Review; Nov2020, Vol. 110 Issue 11, p3549-3601, 53p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS size, BUSINESS cycles, BUSINESS finance, ECONOMICS, BUSINESS conditions

مستخلص: This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unrelated to proxies for financial strength. We instead provide evidence for an alternative mechanism based on the industry scope of the very largest firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of American Economic Review is the property of American Economic Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)