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المؤلفون: Michael Ferreira Machado, Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo, Jussara Almeida de Oliveira Baggio, Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza, Alan Dantas Dos Santos, Anderson C. Armstrong
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Databases, Factual, Cross-sectional study, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, Logistic regression, epidemic, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Epidemiology, Case fatality rate, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Registries, education, Aged, education.field_of_study, Spatial Analysis, Original Paper, business.industry, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, COVID-19, Middle Aged, Coronavirus disease, Infectious Diseases, Cross-Sectional Studies, Logistic Models, Female, epidemiology, business, Social vulnerability, Brazil, Demography
الوصف: Brazil ranks second in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. In spite of this, coping measures differ throughout the national territory, as does the disease's impact on the population. This cross-sectional observational study, with 59 695 cases of COVID-19 registered in the state of Alagoas between March and August 2020, analysed clinical-epidemiological variables, incidence rate, mortality rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and the social indicators municipal human development index (MHDI) and social vulnerability index (SVI). Moran statistics and regression models were applied. Logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the predictors of death. The incidence rate was 1788.7/100 000 inhabitants; mortality rate was 48.0/100 000 and CFR was 2.7%. The highest incidence rates were observed in municipalities with better human development (overall MHDI (I = 0.1668; p = 0.002), education MHDI (I = 0.1649; p = 0.002) and income MHDI (I = 0.1880; p = 0.005)) and higher social vulnerability (overall SVI (I = 0.0599; p = 0.033)). CFR was associated with higher social vulnerability (SVI human capital (I = 0.0858; p = 0.004) and SVI urban infrastructure (I = 0.0985; p = 0.040)). Of the analysed cases, 55.4% were female; 2/3 were Black or Brown and the median age was 41 years. Among deaths, most were male (919; 57.4%) and elderly (1171; 73.1%). The predictors of death were male sex, advanced age and the presence of comorbidities. In Alagoas, Brazil, the disease has undergone a process of interiorisation and caused more deaths in poorer municipalities. The presence of comorbidities and advanced age were predictors of death.
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المؤلفون: E. Tuyishime, E. Remera, V. Mutarabayire, S. Nsanzimana, R. H. Doshi, D. Prybylski, C. Kayitesi, Samuel S. Malamba, P. Mugwaneza, S. Gutreuter, M.-H. Dong, A. Mulindabigwi, D. Sebuhoro, G. Musengimana, Eugenie Kayirangwa
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: sub-Saharan Africa, Epidemiology, 030231 tropical medicine, Sample (statistics), HIV Infections, Mark and recapture, 03 medical and health sciences, Capture−recapture, 0302 clinical medicine, Recall bias, population size estimation, Statistics, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Epidemic control, female sex workers, Estimation, Population Density, Original Paper, Models, Statistical, Sex Workers, Population size, Rwanda, Female sex, Bayes Theorem, Multiple source, Health Planning, Infectious Diseases, Geography, HIV/AIDS, Female
الوصف: Establishing accurate population size estimates (PSE) is important for prioritising and planning provision of services. Multiple source capture−recapture sampling method increases PSE accuracy and reliability. In August 2018, the three-source capture−recapture (3S-CRC) method was employed with a stringent assumption of sample independence to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in Rwanda. Using Rwanda 2017 FSW hotspots mapping data, street and venue-based FSW were sampled at the sector level of each province and tagged with two unique gifts. Each capture was completed within one week to minimise FSW migration between provinces and recall bias. The three captures had 1042, 1204 and 1488 FSW. There were 111 FSW recaptured between captures 1 and 2; 237 between captures 2 and 3; 203 between captures 1 and 3 and 46 captured in all three. The PSE for street and venue-based FSW in Rwanda lies within 95% credible set: 8328–22 806 with corresponding median of 13 716 FSW. The 3S-CRC technique was low-cost and relatively easy to use for PSE in hard-to-reach populations. This estimate provides the basis for determining the denominators to assess HIV programme performance towards FSW and epidemic control and warrants further PSE for home- and cyber-based FSW in Rwanda.
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المؤلفون: A. McKee, I. Phadke, Jessica M. Conway, Katriona Shea
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: Quality Assurance, Health Care, Epidemiology, health care facilities, manpower, and services, Health Personnel, Health Status, Population, education, Psychological intervention, Disease, 01 natural sciences, Models, Biological, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, quality of care, Environmental health, Epidemic model, Health care, Medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, mathematical modelling, 0101 mathematics, Mortality, Epidemics, Health policy, education.field_of_study, Original Paper, business.industry, healthcare workers, 010102 general mathematics, Vaccination, Outbreak, virus diseases, Infectious Diseases, business
الوصف: During a disease outbreak, healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to treat infected individuals. However, these HCWs are themselves susceptible to contracting the disease. As more HCWs get infected, fewer are available to provide care for others, and the overall quality of care available to infected individuals declines. This depletion of HCWs may contribute to the epidemic's severity. To examine this issue, we explicitly model declining quality of care in four differential equation-based susceptible, infected and recovered-type models with vaccination. We assume that vaccination, recovery and survival rates are affected by quality of care delivered. We show that explicitly modelling HCWs and accounting for declining quality of care significantly alters model-predicted disease outcomes, specifically case counts and mortality. Models neglecting the decline of quality of care resulting from infection of HCWs may significantly under-estimate cases and mortality. These models may be useful to inform health policy that may differ for HCWs and the general population. Models accounting for declining quality of care may therefore improve the management interventions considered to mitigate the effects of a future outbreak.
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المؤلفون: Takeshi Miyama, Takayuki Nishio, Kazuo Kobayashi, Kazushi Motomura, Hiromi Miyata, Tomohiko Ukai, Ayumi Shintani, Nobuhiro Iritani, Satoshi Hiroi, Yuka Satsuki
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: 0301 basic medicine, Time Factors, Epidemiology, Epidemic season, 030106 microbiology, Biology, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Virus, Clinical Practice, 03 medical and health sciences, respiratory syncytial virus infections, 0302 clinical medicine, Infectious Diseases, Japan, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human, medicine, Humans, Short Paper, Seasons, 030212 general & internal medicine, Respiratory system, Epidemics, seasonal shift, Demography
الوصف: In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection generally has occurred during autumn and winter. However, a possible change in the seasonal trend of RSV infection has been observed recently. The current study was conducted to determine whether the epidemic season of RSV infection in Japan has indeed changed significantly. We used expectation-based Poisson scan statistics to detect periods with high weekly reported RSV cases (epidemic cluster), and the epidemic clusters were detected between September and December in the 2012–2016 seasons while those were detected between July and October in the 2017–2019 seasons. Non-linear and linear ordinary least squares regression models were built to evaluate whether there is a difference in year trend in the epidemic seasonality, and the epidemic season was shifted to earlier in the year in 2017–2019 compared to that in 2012–2016. Although the reason for the shift is unclear, this information may help in clinical practice and public health.
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المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: 0301 basic medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, Epidemiology, infectious disease, Population, Basic Reproduction Number, epidemic, ABO Blood-Group System, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, ABO blood group system, Pandemic, Humans, Medicine, education, Blood type, Original Paper, education.field_of_study, SARS-CoV-2, business.industry, pandemic, Public health, COVID-19, ABO blood types, 030104 developmental biology, Infectious Diseases, Infectious disease (medical specialty), 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, business, Basic reproduction number, Demography
الوصف: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is currently the most critical challenge in public health. An understanding of the factors that affect severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection will help fight the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and blood type distribution. The big data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Johns Hopkins University were used to assess the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. The infection data in the early phase of the pandemic from six countries in each of six geographic zones divided according to the WHO were used, representing approximately 5.4 billion people around the globe. We calculated the infection growth factor, doubling times of infection and death cases, reproductive number and infection and death cases in relation to the blood type distribution. The growth factor of infection and death cases significantly and positively correlated with the proportion of the population with blood type A and negatively correlated with the proportion of the population with blood type B. Compared with the lower blood type A population (
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المؤلفون: Fang Yan, Jia-Ming Zhu, Alex Plimo Karuno, Wei-Wei Zhou, Hong-Yin Hu
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: demographic expansions, 0301 basic medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, Asia, Internationality, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Epidemiology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Physical Distancing, Public Policy, Genome, Viral, epidemic, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Quarantine, medicine, Humans, genome, Phylogeny, Travel, Original Paper, SARS-CoV-2, Public health, intercontinental transmission, Australia, COVID-19, Outbreak, Genomics, South America, Europe, 030104 developmental biology, Infectious Diseases, Transmission (mechanics), Geography, Africa, Communicable Disease Control, North America, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Demography, Demographic expansion
الوصف: The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is greatly threatening the public health in the world. We reconstructed global transmissions and potential demographic expansions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 based on genomic information. We found that intercontinental transmissions were rare in January and early February but drastically increased since late February. After world-wide implements of travel restrictions, the transmission frequencies decreased to a low level in April. We identified a total of 88 potential demographic expansions over the world based on the star-radiative networks and 75 of them were found in Europe and North America. The expansion numbers peaked in March and quickly dropped since April. These findings are highly concordant with epidemic reports and modelling results and highlight the significance of quarantine validity on the global spread of COVID-19. Our analyses indicate that the travel restrictions and social distancing measures are effective in containing the spread of COVID-19.
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المؤلفون: Norbert Brunner, Manfred Kühleitner
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: 0301 basic medicine, Epidemiology, forecast, Upper and lower bounds, Models, Biological, West africa, Disease Outbreaks, Normal distribution, 03 medical and health sciences, final disease size, 0302 clinical medicine, Statistics, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Mathematics, Original Paper, Models, Statistical, weighted least-squares, Bertalanffy–Pütter model (BP-model), Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Africa, Western, 030104 developmental biology, Infectious Diseases, epidemic trajectory, Value (economics), Curve fitting, Forecasting
الوصف: Using monthly data from the Ebola-outbreak 2013–2016 in West Africa, we compared two calibrations for data fitting, least-squares (SSE) and weighted least-squares (SWSE) with weights reciprocal to the number of new infections. To compare (in hindsight) forecasts for the final disease size (the actual value was observed at month 28 of the outbreak) we fitted Bertalanffy–Pütter growth models to truncated initial data (first 11, 12, …, 28 months). The growth curves identified the epidemic peak at month 10 and the relative errors of the forecasts (asymptotic limits) were below 10%, if 16 or more month were used; for SWSE the relative errors were smaller than for SSE. However, the calibrations differed insofar as for SWSE there were good fitting models that forecasted reasonable upper and lower bounds, while SSE was biased, as the forecasts of good fitting models systematically underestimated the final disease size. Furthermore, for SSE the normal distribution hypothesis of the fit residuals was refuted, while the similar hypothesis for SWSE was not refuted. We therefore recommend considering SWSE for epidemic forecasts.
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المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: 0301 basic medicine, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, From the Field, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Epidemiology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Pneumonia, Viral, epidemic, Patient Isolation, Betacoronavirus, 03 medical and health sciences, COVID-19 Testing, 0302 clinical medicine, Pandemic, Econometrics, Humans, Computer Simulation, 030212 general & internal medicine, Pandemics, Patient isolation, Stochastic Processes, Clinical Laboratory Techniques, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Diagnostic test, 030104 developmental biology, Geography, Infectious Diseases, Spain, simulations, Coronavirus Infections, individual contact models
الوصف: In Spain, the epidemic curve caused by COVID-19 has reached its peak in the last days of March. The implementation of the blockade derived from the declaration of the state of alarm on 14th March has raised a discussion on how and when to deal with the unblocking. In this paper, we intend to add information that may help by using epidemic simulation techniques with stochastic individual contact models and several extensions.
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المؤلفون: Christel Faes, Kimberlyn Roosa, Tapiwa Ganyani, Gerardo Chowell, Niel Hens
المساهمون: GANYANI, Tapiwa, Roosa, Kimberlyn, FAES, Christel, HENS, Niel, Chowell, Gerardo
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and infectionمصطلحات موضوعية: 0301 basic medicine, Original Paper, Epidemiology, 030106 microbiology, Outbreak, Ebola epidemic, epidemic modeling, epidemic size, generalised growth model, sub-exponential growth, West africa, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Growth parameter, Epidemic outbreak, 030212 general & internal medicine, Human medicine, Demography
الوصف: We assess the relationship between epidemic size and the scaling of epidemic growth of Ebola epidemics at the level of administrative areas during the 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. For this purpose, we quantify growth scaling parameters from the ascending phase of Ebola outbreaks comprising at least 7 weeks of epidemic growth. We then study how these parameters are associated with observed epidemic sizes. For validation purposes, we also analyse two historic Ebola outbreaks. We find a high monotonic association between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size. For example, scaling of growth parameters around 0.3–0.4, 0.4–0.6 and 0.6 are associated with epidemic sizes on the order of 350–460, 460–840 and 840–2500 cases, respectively. These results are not explained by differences in epidemic onset across affected areas. We also find the relationship between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size to be consistent for two past Ebola outbreaks in Congo (1976) and Uganda (2000). Signature features of epidemic growth could become useful to assess the risk of observing a major epidemic outbreak, generate improved diseases forecasts and enhance the predictive power of epidemic models. Our results indicate that the epidemic growth scaling parameter is a useful indicator of epidemic size, which may have significant implications to guide control of Ebola outbreaks and possibly other infectious diseases. TG is supported by Hasselt University (UHasselt) Center for Statistics and led this study during a research visit to Georgia State University. KR is supported through a 2CI Doctoral Fellowship at Georgia State University. NH greatly acknowledges support from the University of Antwerp scientific chair in Evidence-Based Vaccinology, financed in 2009-2018 by a gift from Pfizer and GSK. GC acknowledge financial support from the NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program; UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council grant BB/M008894/1 and the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies at the Fogarty International Center, NIH.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
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المؤلفون: Yu Xuan Wang, Xiao Yan Zhang
المصدر: Epidemiology and Infection
مصطلحات موضوعية: China, Emergency Medical Services, medicine.medical_specialty, Economic growth, Restructuring, Epidemiology, Pneumonia, Viral, 030231 tropical medicine, Information Dissemination, primary-level emergency, Vulnerable Populations, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Pandemic, Emergency medical services, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Epidemics, Pandemics, Health policy, business.industry, Health Policy, Public health, public health, COVID-19, Information technology, epidemic prevention and control mechanism, Infectious Diseases, Commentary, Coronavirus Infections, Information Technology, business
الوصف: After the 2003 SARS epidemic, China started constructing a primary-level emergency response system and focused on strengthening and implementation of policies, resource allocation. After 17 years of restructuring, China's primary-level response capabilities towards public health emergencies have greatly improved. During the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic, primary-level administrative and medical personnel, social organisations, volunteers, etc. have played a significant role in providing professional services utilising the primary-level emergency response system of 17 years. However, China's organisations did not learn their lesson from the SARS epidemic, and certain problems are exposed in the system. By analysing the experience and shortcomings of China's disease prevention and control system at the primary level, we can focus on the development of disease control systems for major epidemics in the future.
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