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المؤلفون: Brooks, Heather, Doré, Guy, Locat, Ariane, Lemieux, Chantal

المصدر: ASCE Proceedings of the International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering; 2015, p629-640, 12p

مستخلص: Qualitative analysis processes are currently used to design and allocate maintenance monies for linear infrastructure on permafrost. The routing and maintenance locations are generally selected using a qualitative process, with probabilities and consequences of each potential failure mode evaluated using a scalar rating system. A quantitative risk assessment utilizes calculated values of failure probability and consequence. In either analysis method, the values of probability and consequence are multiplied to determine a risk importance factor, which is used to rank and analyze each risk. While qualitative analysis methods have been used for many years, there is a push within the engineering community towards probability-based methodologies, quantifying the analysis process. This paper presents a review of probabilistic methods used to analyze geotechnical properties and calculation uncertainty, problems and failure modes of embankment-supported infrastructure on permafrost, and risk analysis methods. This review is an initial step in the development of a tool and methodology for quantitative risk assessment of linear infrastructure on permafrost; a brief discussion of the research plan is also included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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