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المؤلفون: Eydam, Ulrich (Dr.), Leupold, Florian
مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre, Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA), jel:E00, jel:F51, jel:E31, jel:H56
الوصف: Military conflicts and wars affect a country’s development in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict, but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation-nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 175 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. This finding is robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict induced inflation is not solely driven by increasing money supply. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______266::0e58e16304258e259e459b32b20e0c0e
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/59796 -
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المؤلفون: Torben Tranaes, Karsten Albæk, Søren Leth-Petersen, Daniel le Maire
المصدر: University of Copenhagen
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Peacetime, History, Actuarial science, Short run, Earnings, Polymers and Plastics, Military service, 05 social sciences, crime, military service, activation, Human capital, jel:H56, jel:K42, Educational attainment, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, jel:J24, Lottery, Property crime, Political science, 0502 economics and business, Demographic economics, 050207 economics, Business and International Management, 050205 econometrics
الوصف: Draft lottery data combined with Danish longitudinal administrative records show that military service can reduce criminal activity for youth offenders who enter service at ages 19-22. For this group property crime is reduced for up to five years from the beginning of service, and the effect is therefore not only a result of incapacitation while enrolled. We find no effect of service on violent crimes. We also find no effect of military service on educational attainment and unemployment, but we find negative effects of service on earnings. These results suggest that military service does not upgrade productive human capital directly, but rather impacts criminal activity through other channels, for example by changing the attitudes to criminal activity for this group.
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d3b72ecf3bd62abc67dfcda1883adc20
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4381944 -
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المؤلفون: Joseph H. Felter, Benjamin Crost, Claire Duquennois, Daniel Rees
المصدر: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 88:379-395
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Government, Climate Change, Civil Conflict, Rainfall, International Development, O13, H56, D74, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Natural resource economics, 05 social sciences, Climate change, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Seasonality, medicine.disease, jel:H56, 01 natural sciences, Geography, jel:O13, Agriculture, climate change, civil conflict, rainfall, 0502 economics and business, Civil Conflict, medicine, 050207 economics, Agricultural productivity, business, International development, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
الوصف: Climate change is predicted to affect global rainfall patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict, there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to explore the connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of incidents initiated by government forces. Our results suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agricultural production could weaken the link between climate change and civil conflict.
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المؤلفون: Max Blouin
المصدر: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique. 51:41-63
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Operations research, jel:D74, 05 social sciences, Peacekeeping, conflict, responsibility to protect (R2P), jel:F53, Optimal deployment, jel:H56, 0506 political science, Microeconomics, Intervention (law), Spanish Civil War, Strategic approach, Political science, 0502 economics and business, 050602 political science & public administration, 050207 economics, Non-credible threat, Peacekeeping
الوصف: This paper presents a theoretical model of conflict between two players, with intervention by a peacekeeping force. Peacekeepers are treated as a military contingent, capable of taking sides, acting as a third (independent) side in the war, or remaining inactive, depending on circumstances. This departs from previous models, in which peacekeeping was no more than a parameter affecting players' fighting costs. The main result is an optimal deployment strategy by peacekeepers, detailing the nature and level of intervention required under different circumstances; a strategy which results in the lowest possible level of warfare between the two antagonists. The credible threat of force (rather than mere intervention) is the strategy's key component.
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المؤلفون: Jeffrey B. Liebman, Neale Mahoney
المصدر: American Economic Review. 107:3510-3549
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, media_common.quotation_subject, jel:H61, Buffer stock scheme, jel:L0, Procurement, jel:L24, 0502 economics and business, Agency (sociology), Economics, Quality (business), 050207 economics, 050205 econometrics, media_common, Finance, Government, business.industry, 05 social sciences, Information technology, jel:H56, jel:L2, jel:H0, jel:H57, Incentive, Value (economics), jel:H5, business
الوصف: Many organizations fund their spending out of a fixed budget that expires at year’s end. Faced with uncertainty over future spending demands, these organizations have an incentive to build a buffer stock of funds over the front end of the budget cycle. When demand does not materialize, they then rush to spend these funds on lower quality projects at the end of the year. We test these predictions using data on procurement spending by the U.S. federal government. Using data on all federal contracts from 2004 through 2009, we document that spending spikes in all major federal agencies during the 52nd week of the year as the agencies rush to exhaust expiring budget authority. Spending in the last week of the year is 4.9 times higher than the rest-of-the-year weekly average. We examine the relative quality of year-end spending using a newly available dataset that tracks the quality of $130 billion in information technology (I.T.) projects made by federal agencies. Consistent with the model, average project quality falls at the end of the year. Quality scores in the last week of the year are 2.2 to 5.6 times more likely to be below the central value. To explore the impact of allowing agencies to roll unused spending over into subsequent fiscal years, we study the I.T. contracts of an agency with special authority to roll over unused funding. We show that there is only a small end-of-year I.T. spending spike in this agency and that the one major I.T. contract this agency issued in the 52nd week of the year has a quality rating that is well above average.
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المؤلفون: Travers Barclay Child, David Scoones
المساهمون: Economics
المصدر: Child, T B & Scoones, D 2017, ' Community preferences, insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending ', Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 34-52 . https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1050802
Defence and Peace Economics, 28(1), 34-52. Routledgeمصطلحات موضوعية: Insurgency, Economics and Econometrics, 05 social sciences, development and insurgency, conflict, jel:H56, 0506 political science, jel:N4, Work (electrical), Political economy, 0502 economics and business, Development economics, 050602 political science & public administration, Economics, jel:O38, 050207 economics, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
الوصف: A model of reconstruction spending by an occupying force is developed, in which the local population may have different preferences over the allocation of spending than the occupier. When the spending allocation is misaligned with local preferences an insurgency among some members of the community may result. Depending on the effectiveness of the insurgency, local opposition may constrain the ability of the occupier to implement its most preferred spending allocation. In equilibrium, the occupier may tolerate some level of insurgency to approach its ideal, but naive insistence on a most preferred allocation may lead to fewer projects of any kind being completed. The model suggests that winning the hearts and minds of a local population is less a question of how much money is invested in reconstruction than of how that money is allocated across projects of different kinds.
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المؤلفون: John Dunne, Giorgio d'Agostino, Luca Pieroni
المساهمون: D'Agostino, Giorgio, Dunne, JOHN PAUL, Pieroni, Luca
مصطلحات موضوعية: Macroeconomics, Economics and Econometrics, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, Military spending, jel:C26, panel data, Military expenditure, economic growth, development, instrumental variables, 0502 economics and business, Development economics, Economics, Endogeneity, 050207 economics, reverse causality, Reverse causality, 021110 strategic, defence & security studies, 05 social sciences, Instrumental variable, jel:H56, instrumental variable, jel:O11, jel:N17, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), Panel data
الوصف: The debate over the economic effects of military spending continues to develop, with no consensus, but a deepening understanding of the issues and limitations of previous work. A recent survey has suggested that the inclusion of post Cold War data has tended to make finding a negative effect more common, but issues remain (Dunne and Tian, 2013). One particularly important issue that has not been adequately dealt with, is the possible endogeneity of military spending in the growth equation, mainly because of the difficulty of finding any variables that would make adequate instruments. This paper considers the likely importance of endogeneity, using conflict onset as an instrument for military spending in an endogenous growth model for a panel of African countries 1989-2010. Following a brief review of the literature the theoretical and empirical models are outlined and the use of conflict onset as an instrumental variable for military spending in the panel estimates is justified. The empirical analysis suggests that endogeneity is likely to be an important issue and using IV estimation provides a larger significant negative effect for military spending on growth than OLS. It also identifies a further potential bias in the same direction in studies not including non-military spending in the growth equation. These results imply that the damaging effects of military spending on growth in Africa are being underestimated in most studies. While it is clear that conflict onset is a suitable and successful instrument in this analysis, the results are not directly generalisable. Conflict onset is unlikely to be applicable to a larger and more diverse panel of countries. What is of general concern is the finding that endogeneity is important and is likely to be influencing the results of studies of military spending and growth. It is important that future research tries to deal with endogeneity and the search for reasonable instruments is one that needs to engage researchers.
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::25f508f4eb58cab68c762d606afbf705
https://hdl.handle.net/11590/329383 -
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المؤلفون: Antonis Adam, Petros G. Sekeris
المصدر: Journal of Conflict Resolution. 61:173-203
مصطلحات موضوعية: Commitment device, Sociology and Political Science, jel:D74, jel:D82, 05 social sciences, Conflict, Private Information, Democratic Peace, jel:H56, General Business, Management and Accounting, 0506 political science, Containment, Law, 0502 economics and business, Political Science and International Relations, 050602 political science & public administration, Economics, jel:F5, 050207 economics, Private information retrieval, Law and economics
الوصف: In anarchic settings, potential rivals can be dragged into arms races degenerating in open wars out of mutual suspicion. We propose a novel commitment device for contestants to avoid both arming and fighting. We assume that the military decides the armament levels of a country, while the civilian decides whether to attack a rival country. When these decision-making bodies perfectly communicate, the decision makers are unable to credibly communicate to their foe their willingness not to arm and not to attack, thus implying that war ensues. With imperfect information, however, peace may ensue as countries credibly signal to their rival a more peaceful stance since contestants are more reluctant to enter in an armed confrontation with a potentially understaffed army. Using data on the 1975 to 2001 period, we provide supportive evidence that in countries where the head of the state or the defense minister are military officers, and are therefore better informed of their armies’ fighting preparedness, the likelihood of observing an international conflict is higher.
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0066dff3b29aa6a09d1cae6bb7d91166
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714564428 -
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المؤلفون: Simone Schüller
المصدر: Economics Letters. 135:80-84
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Individual heterogeneity, business.industry, jel:D72, jel:C23, Public relations, jel:H56, language.human_language, Biology and political orientation, German, Identification (information), Politics, Causal inference, Political economy, Terrorism, language, Economics, Voting behavior, political orientation, party support, terrorism, causal inference, business, Finance
الوصف: This study analyzes the causal impact of the 9/11 terror attacks on individual political orientation and political support intensity using the German Socio-Economic Panel 1999-2003. Exploiting survey interview timing in 2001 for identification and controlling for unobserved individual heterogeneity, I find 9/11 to have increased overall political mobilization. While there is no indication of a considerable switch in support between political blocks, the attacks significantly weakened support intensity among left-wing voters and increased the strength of political support among right-wing voters, indicating a shift in conservative direction.
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المؤلفون: Hanno Lustig, Antje Berndt, Sevin Yeltekin
مصطلحات موضوعية: 150399 Business and Management not elsewhere classified, Excess burden of taxation, media_common.quotation_subject, jel:E62, jel:H63, Monetary economics, jel:H56, Intertemporal budget constraint, Fiscal policy, FOS: Economics and business, Debt, Economics, Fiscal adjustment, General Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Budget constraint, Valuation (finance), Public finance, media_common
الوصف: In this paper, we explore the dynamic adjustment of the US government’s fiscal balances to expenditure shocks. We identify the different fiscal adjustment channels that help stabilize the US government’s balances and develop a method for quantifying the use of each channel in the postwar era. To do so, we make use of the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The government’s budget constraint dictates that surprise increases in spending must be financed through either an increase in primary surpluses or a reduction in returns on the government’s bond portfolio. We refer to the first channel of adjustment as the surplus channel and the second as the debt valuation channel. The surplus channel operates through an increase in contemporaneous and expected future surplus growth when the news about higher expenditures are revealed, whereas the debt valuation channel operates through a decline in contemporaneous and expected future debt returns. In normative models of fiscal policy, adjustments through the debt valuation channel are referred to as “fiscal insurance.” Standard models in this literature feature a benevolent government that minimizes the excess burden of taxation by varying its debt returns. The extent to which it can do this is determined by the asset market structure it faces. In complete-market models, a decline in debt returns absorb the surprise increase in spending needs, allowing the government to maintain a constant excess burden of taxation. In
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::339fedc12fde2a3e8d027646b3daee07
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