المؤلفون: Juan Cruz Beron, Guillermo Solovey, Ignacio A. Ferrelli, María E. Pedreira, Rodrigo S. Fernández

المصدر: Scientific Reports, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2024)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Belief updating, COVID-19, Threat-anxiety, Computational modeling, Optimism bias, Medicine, Science

الوصف: Abstract When updating beliefs, humans tend to integrate more desirable information than undesirable information. In stable environments (low uncertainty and high predictability), this asymmetry favors motivation towards action and perceived self-efficacy. However, in changing environments (high uncertainty and low predictability), this process can lead to risk underestimation and increase unwanted costs. Here, we examine how people (n = 388) integrate threatening information during an abrupt environmental change (mandatory quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic). Given that anxiety levels are associated with the magnitude of the updating belief asymmetry; we explore its relationship during this particular context. We report a significant reduction in asymmetrical belief updating during a large environmental change as individuals integrated desirable and undesirable information to the same extent. Moreover, this result was supported by computational modeling of the belief update task. However, we found that the reduction in asymmetrical belief updating was not homogeneous among people with different levels of Trait-anxiety. Individuals with higher levels of Trait-anxiety maintained a valence-dependent updating, as it occurs in stable environments. On the other hand, updating behavior was not associated with acute anxiety (State-Anxiety), health concerns (Health-Anxiety), or having positive expectations (Trait-Optimism). These results suggest that highly uncertain environments can generate adaptive changes in information integration. At the same time, it reveals the vulnerabilities of individuals with higher levels of anxiety to adapt the way they learn.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

Relation: https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322

URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/493408b9e59b4419a27c7f3e097cf552

المؤلفون: Love, P.E.D., Ika, L.A., Sing, M.C.P.

المصدر: IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on. 69(6):2588-2602 Dec, 2022

المؤلفون: Sassano, Giuseppe^Aff14, Budzier, Alexander^Aff15, Hadley, Tiffany^Aff14

المساهمون: di Prisco, Marco, Series Editor^Aff1, Chen, Sheng-Hong, Series Editor^Aff2, Vayas, Ioannis, Series Editor^Aff3, Kumar Shukla, Sanjay, Series Editor^Aff4, Sharma, Anuj, Series Editor^Aff5, Kumar, Nagesh, Series Editor^Aff6, Wang, Chien Ming, Series Editor^Aff7, Cui, Zhen-Dong, Series Editor^Aff8, Cantoni, Franca, editor^Aff9, Corazza, Laura, editor^Aff10, De Nito, Ernesto, editor^Aff11, Di Nauta, Primiano, editor^Aff12, Favari, Edoardo, editor^Aff13

المصدر: Complexity and Sustainability in Megaprojects : MeRIT Workshop 2023. 493:166-183

المؤلفون: Henss, Larissa^{Aff1, IDs10212023007835_cor1}, Pinquart, Martin

المصدر: European Journal of Psychology of Education: A Journal of Education and Development. :1-21

المؤلفون: Sohaee, Nassim^{Aff1, IDs40537023006859_cor1}

المصدر: Journal of Big Data. 10(1)

المؤلفون: Jain, Tarnn, Hazra, Jishnu

المصدر: 2019 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM) Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), 2019 IEEE International Conference on. :835-839 Dec, 2019

Relation: 2019 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM)

المؤلفون: Elizabeth L. Fisher, Jakob Hohwy

المصدر: Entropy, Vol 26, Iss 6, p 518 (2024)

مصطلحات موضوعية: free-energy principle, active inference, self-evidencing, epistemology, wishful thinking, optimism bias, Science, Astrophysics, QB460-466, Physics, QC1-999

الوصف: Karl Friston’s free-energy principle casts agents as self-evidencing through active inference. This implies that decision-making, planning and information-seeking are, in a generic sense, ‘wishful’. We take an interdisciplinary perspective on this perplexing aspect of the free-energy principle and unpack the epistemological implications of wishful thinking under the free-energy principle. We use this epistemic framing to discuss the emergence of biases for self-evidencing agents. In particular, we argue that this elucidates an optimism bias as a foundational tenet of self-evidencing. We allude to a historical precursor to some of these themes, interestingly found in Machiavelli’s oeuvre, to contextualise the universal optimism of the free-energy principle.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

Relation: https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/26/6/518; https://doaj.org/toc/1099-4300

URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/0bc4b80415e44e0990e22bc85b214cb8

المؤلفون: Hood, Christopher, author, King, Maia, author, McLean, Iain, author, Piotrowska, Barbara Maria, author

المصدر: The Way the Money Goes : The Fiscal Constitution and Public Spending in the UK, 2023, ill.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198865087.003.0006

المؤلفون: Hood, Christopher, author, King, Maia, author, McLean, Iain, author, Piotrowska, Barbara Maria, author

المصدر: The Way the Money Goes : The Fiscal Constitution and Public Spending in the UK, 2023, ill.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198865087.003.0009

المؤلفون: Maura A. E. Pilotti, Khadija El Alaoui, Arifi Waked

المصدر: Frontiers in Psychology, Vol 14 (2024)

مصطلحات موضوعية: grade prediction, accuracy, confidence, middle east, illusion of knowing, optimism bias, Psychology, BF1-990

الوصف: Evidence exists that the pandemic has brought about stress, and altered study habits and academic performance. No evidence exists regarding whether metacognition has also been altered. The present field study examined the accuracy and confidence with which college students make grade predictions in a general education course after the pandemic. It tested whether one of three types of biases affected students’ predictions as a way to cope with the uncertainty of a final exam’s outcome: illusion-of-knowing, optimism, and pessimistic bracing. Students made predictions both before and after completing the final exam (summative assessment) to determine the impact of each of the hypothesized biases on estimates made in a context of varying uncertainty. Accuracy was computed as the difference between expected and actual grades on the final exam. Confidence in the predictions made was measured on a Likert scale. Exam performance was categorized as good, poor, or inadequate. In this study, less-than-desirable performance was accompanied by overestimations. However, overestimations were made with little confidence and benefited from the information acquired from completing the exam. This pattern of results suggests that students who are not doing well are not under the spell of the illusion-of-knowing phenomenon. Indeed, their optimistic predictions are punctured by the awareness of a likely undesirable outcome (as indicated by their weak confidence in the predictions made). Implications and applications of these findings are discussed.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

Relation: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1270621/full; https://doaj.org/toc/1664-1078

URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/a5e3bcabbb104330a16a20e5c731ce9e