دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?
المؤلفون: Kondili LA; Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Robbins S; Center for Disease Analysis, CDA Foundation | Polaris Observatory, Lafayette, CO, USA., Blach S; Center for Disease Analysis, CDA Foundation | Polaris Observatory, Lafayette, CO, USA., Gamkrelidze I; Center for Disease Analysis, CDA Foundation | Polaris Observatory, Lafayette, CO, USA., Zignego AL; Department of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, Interdepartmental Centre MASVE, University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Brunetto MR; Internal Medicine, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine University of Pisa and Liver Unit, Pisa University Hospital, Pisa, Italy., Raimondo G; Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of Messina, Messina, Italy., Taliani G; Infectious and Tropical Diseases Unit, Umberto I Hospital, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy., Iannone A; Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Bari, Bari, Italy., Russo FP; Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Padua, Padua, Italy., Santantonio TA; Department of Infectious Disease, Ospedali Riuniti, Foggia, Italy., Zuin M; Liver and Gastroenterology Unit, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, Milan, Italy., Chessa L; Liver Unit, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy., Blanc P; Department of Infectious Disease, S.M. Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy., Puoti M; Department of Infectious Disease, Niguarda Hospital, Milan, Italy., Vinci M; Hepatitis Center, Niguarda Hospital, Milan, Italy., Erne EM; Department of Infectious Disease, University Hospital of Padua, Padua, Italy., Strazzabosco M; Department of Hepatology, San Gerardo Hospital, Monza, Italy., Massari M; Department of Infectious Disease, Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, Reggio Emilia, Italy., Lampertico P; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, University of Milan, Milan, Italy., Rumi MG; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, San Giuseppe Hospital, Milan, Italy., Federico A; Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Naples, Italy., Orlandini A; Department of Infectious Disease and Hepatology, University of Parma, Parma, Italy., Ciancio A; Gastoenterology Unit, Città della Salute e della Scienza-Ospedale Molinette, Turin, Italy., Borgia G; Department of Infectious Disease, Federico II University, Naples, Italy., Andreone P; Department of Hepatology, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy., Caporaso N; Gastroenterology Unit, Federico II University, Naples, Italy., Persico M; Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, University of Salerno, Salerno, Italy., Ieluzzi D; Liver Unit, University Hospital of Verona, Verona, Italy., Madonia S; Internal Medicine, Villa Sofia-Cervello Hospital, Palermo, Italy., Gori A; Department of Infectious Disease, San Gerardo Hospital, Monza, Italy., Gasbarrini A; Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Catholic University of Rome, Rome, Italy., Coppola C; Department of Hepatology, Gragnano Hospital, Naples, Italy., Brancaccio G; Infectious Diseases, Department of Mental and Physical Health and Preventive Medicine, Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Naples, Italy., Andriulli A; Division of Gastroenterology, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Casa Sollievo Sofferenza Hospital, San Giovanni Rotondo, Foggia, Italy., Quaranta MG; Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Montilla S; Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA), Rome, Italy., Razavi H; Center for Disease Analysis, CDA Foundation | Polaris Observatory, Lafayette, CO, USA., Melazzini M; Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA), Rome, Italy., Vella S; Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Craxì A; Gastroenterolgy and Liver Unit, DiBiMIS, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
مؤلفون مشاركون: PITER Collaborating Group
المصدر: Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver [Liver Int] 2018 Dec; Vol. 38 (12), pp. 2190-2198. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Aug 10.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101160857 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1478-3231 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14783223 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Liver Int
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell
Original Publication: Oxford, UK : Blackwell Munksgaard, c2003-
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Cause of Death*, Disease Eradication/*trends , Hepatitis C/*epidemiology , Mortality/*trends , Viremia/*epidemiology, Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/mortality ; Cost of Illness ; Hepatitis C/diagnosis ; Hepatitis C/drug therapy ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Liver Cirrhosis/mortality ; Liver Neoplasms/mortality ; Markov Chains ; Sustained Virologic Response ; Viremia/diagnosis ; Viremia/drug therapy ; World Health Organization
مستخلص: Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030.
Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals.
Results: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals.
Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.
(© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
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فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: HCV; WHO; chronic infection; linkage to care
المشرفين على المادة: 0 (Antiviral Agents)
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20180615 Date Completed: 20190806 Latest Revision: 20231004
رمز التحديث: 20231004
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC6282782
DOI: 10.1111/liv.13901
PMID: 29900654
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1478-3231
DOI:10.1111/liv.13901