دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.
المؤلفون: Vollset SE; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Goren E; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Yuan CW; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Cao J; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Smith AE; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Hsiao T; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Bisignano C; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Azhar GS; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Castro E; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Chalek J; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Dolgert AJ; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Frank T; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Fukutaki K; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Hay SI; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Lozano R; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Mokdad AH; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Nandakumar V; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Pierce M; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Pletcher M; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Robalik T; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Steuben KM; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Wunrow HY; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Zlavog BS; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Murray CJL; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: cjlm@uw.edu.
المصدر: Lancet (London, England) [Lancet] 2020 Oct 17; Vol. 396 (10258), pp. 1285-1306. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Jul 14.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 2985213R Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1474-547X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01406736 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: 2004- : London : Elsevier
Original Publication: London : J. Onwhyn
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Population Growth*, Birth Rate/*trends , Global Burden of Disease/*trends , Human Migration/*trends , Mortality/*trends, Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male
مستخلص: Background: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.
Methods: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions.
Findings: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers.
Interpretation: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
(Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
التعليقات: Comment in: Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1133-1134. (PMID: 32679110)
Comment in: Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1131-1133. (PMID: 32679113)
Comment in: Lancet. 2021 Aug 14;398(10300):579-580. (PMID: 34391495)
Comment in: Lancet. 2021 Aug 14;398(10300):580. (PMID: 34391496)
Comment in: Lancet. 2021 Aug 14;398(10300):580-581. (PMID: 34391497)
Comment in: Lancet. 2021 Aug 14;398(10300):581. (PMID: 34391498)
References: Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1736-1788. (PMID: 30496103)
Science. 2011 Jul 29;333(6042):569-73. (PMID: 21798936)
Glob Environ Change. 2017 Jan;42:181-192. (PMID: 28239237)
Lancet. 2016 Dec 10;388(10062):e19-e23. (PMID: 27371184)
Popul Stud (Camb). 1996 Nov;50(3):361-87. (PMID: 11618374)
Stanford Law Rev. 1988 Apr;40(4):1027-117. (PMID: 11645674)
Am J Epidemiol. 2015 Jul 15;182(2):138-47. (PMID: 26081676)
Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1923-1994. (PMID: 30496105)
Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1995-2051. (PMID: 30496106)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Oct 12;107(41):17521-6. (PMID: 20937861)
Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):2052-2090. (PMID: 30340847)
Science. 2015 Feb 13;347(6223):1259855. (PMID: 25592418)
Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):e14-e15. (PMID: 30340848)
Lancet. 2019 Jun 1;393(10187):2233-2260. (PMID: 31030984)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Aug 28;109(35):13915-21. (PMID: 22908249)
Demography. 2011 Aug;48(3):815-39. (PMID: 21748544)
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20200718 Date Completed: 20201027 Latest Revision: 20210816
رمز التحديث: 20231215
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC7561721
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
PMID: 32679112
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1474-547X
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2