دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine.
المؤلفون: Gul S; Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale, Turkey. serdarguul@yahoo.com., Tuncay K; Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. tuncay@metu.edu.tr., Binici B; Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. binici@metu.edu.tr., Aydin BB; Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. beyazit@metu.edu.tr.
المصدر: Journal of infection in developing countries [J Infect Dev Ctries] 2020 Jul 31; Vol. 14 (7), pp. 713-720. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Jul 31.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Open Learning on Enteric Pathogens Country of Publication: Italy NLM ID: 101305410 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1972-2680 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19722680 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Infect Dev Ctries Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: [Italy?] : Open Learning on Enteric Pathogens
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Quarantine*, Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/*transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/*transmission, Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Testing ; Child ; Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data ; Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis ; Coronavirus Infections/mortality ; Family Characteristics ; Germany/epidemiology ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Middle Aged ; Monte Carlo Method ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis ; Pneumonia, Viral/mortality ; Social Isolation ; Social Networking ; Turkey/epidemiology ; Young Adult
مستخلص: Introduction: There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries.
Methodology: The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals.
Results: It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%.
Conclusions: The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals.
Competing Interests: No Conflict of Interest is declared
(Copyright (c) 2020 Serdar Gul, Kagan Tuncay, Baris Binici, Beyazit Bestami Aydin.)
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: COVID-19; Germany; Italy; Turkey; social distancing; transmission
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20200815 Date Completed: 20200828 Latest Revision: 20201218
رمز التحديث: 20240829
DOI: 10.3855/jidc.12844
PMID: 32794459
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1972-2680
DOI:10.3855/jidc.12844