دورية أكاديمية
Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling.
| العنوان: | Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Watson OJ; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Okell LC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Hellewell J; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Slater HC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Unwin HJT; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Omedo I; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, Kenya., Bejon P; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, Kenya., Snow RW; Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Noor AM; Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization., Rockett K; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Hubbart C; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Nankabirwa JI; Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.; Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda., Greenhouse B; Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA., Chang HH; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA., Ghani AC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Verity R; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom. |
| المصدر: | Molecular biology and evolution [Mol Biol Evol] 2021 Jan 04; Vol. 38 (1), pp. 274-289. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Oxford University Press Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 8501455 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1537-1719 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 07374038 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Mol Biol Evol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: 2003- : New York, NY : Oxford University Press Original Publication: [Chicago, Ill.] : University of Chicago Press, [c1983- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Models, Statistical*, Malaria/*transmission , Plasmodium/*genetics, Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Genetic Variation ; Humans ; Kenya/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Malaria/parasitology ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology ; Prevalence ; Superinfection ; Uganda/epidemiology |
| مستخلص: | Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance. (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 212176 United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; 103602 United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; U54 GM088558 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS; U19 AI089674 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; 109312/Z/15/Z United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; K24 AI144048 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; 105272/Z/14/Z United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; 001 International WHO_ World Health Organization; MR/R015600/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: genetics; malaria; modeling; surveillance |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20200908 Date Completed: 20210617 Latest Revision: 20240416 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240416 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC7783189 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/molbev/msaa225 |
| PMID: | 32898225 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
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