دورية أكاديمية
Countering the potential re-emergence of a deadly infectious disease-Information warfare, identifying strategic threats, launching countermeasures.
| العنوان: | Countering the potential re-emergence of a deadly infectious disease-Information warfare, identifying strategic threats, launching countermeasures. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Ali RN; Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America., Rubin H; Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America., Sarkar S; Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America. |
| المصدر: | PloS one [PLoS One] 2021 Aug 20; Vol. 16 (8), pp. e0256014. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 20 (Print Publication: 2021). |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Models, Theoretical* , Public Opinion*, Communicable Disease Control/*methods , Smallpox/*prevention & control, COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use ; Humans ; Mortality ; Population Density ; Psychological Warfare ; Smallpox/drug therapy ; Smallpox/epidemiology ; Smallpox/transmission ; Smallpox Vaccine/therapeutic use ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Stochastic Processes ; Vaccination Refusal/psychology |
| مستخلص: | Objectives: Eradicated infectious diseases like smallpox can re-emerge through accident or the designs of bioterrorists, and cause heavy casualties. Presently, the populace is largely susceptible as only a small percentage is vaccinated, and their immunity is likely to have waned. And when the disease re-emerges, the susceptible individuals may be manipulated by disinformation on Social Media to refuse vaccines. Thus, a combination of countermeasures consisting of antiviral drugs and vaccines and a range of policies for their application need to be investigated. Opinions regarding whether to receive vaccines evolve over time through social exchanges via networks that overlap with but are not identical to the disease propagation networks. These couple the spread of the biological and information contagion and necessitate a joint investigation of the two. Methods: We develop a computationally tractable metapopulation epidemiological model that captures the joint spatio-temporal evolution of an infectious disease (e.g., smallpox, COVID-19) and opinion dynamics. Results: Considering smallpox, the computations based on the model show that opinion dynamics have a substantial impact on the fatality count. Towards understanding how perpetrators are likely to seed the infection, we identify a) the initial distribution of infected individuals that maximize the overall fatality count; and b) which habitation structures are more vulnerable to outbreaks. We assess the relative efficacy of different countermeasures and conclude that a combination of vaccines and drugs minimize the fatalities, and by itself, drugs reduce fatalities more than the vaccine. Accordingly, we assess the impact of increase in the supply of drugs and identify the most effective among a collection of policies for administering of drugs for various parameter combinations. Many of the observed patterns are stable to variations of a diverse set of parameters. Conclusions: Our findings provide a quantitative foundation for various important elements of public health discourse that have largely been conducted qualitatively. Competing Interests: SIGA Technologies, Inc. has provided our laboratory a monetary gift. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. SIGA Technologies, Inc. had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. |
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| المشرفين على المادة: | 0 (COVID-19 Vaccines) 0 (Smallpox Vaccine) |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20210820 Date Completed: 20210826 Latest Revision: 20210826 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240628 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC8378755 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0256014 |
| PMID: | 34415941 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
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