دورية أكاديمية
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Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.
المؤلفون: Tennant WSD; The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. Warren.Tennant@warwick.ac.uk.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. Warren.Tennant@warwick.ac.uk., Cardinale E; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.; Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, Université de Montpellier, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, INRAE, Montpellier, France., Cêtre-Sossah C; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.; Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, Université de Montpellier, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, INRAE, Montpellier, France., Moutroifi Y; Vice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros., Le Godais G; Direction de l'Alimentation, de l'Agriculture et de la Forêt de Mayotte, Service de l'Alimentation, 97600, Mamoudzou, France., Colombi D; Aizoon Technology Consulting, Str. del Lionetto 6, Torino, Italy., Spencer SEF; The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.; Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4, 7AL, UK., Tildesley MJ; The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK., Keeling MJ; The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK., Charafouddine O; Vice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros., Colizza V; INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France., Edmunds WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK., Métras R; INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France.; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
المصدر: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2021 Sep 22; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 5593. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 22.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Models, Theoretical*, Rift Valley Fever/*prevention & control , Rift Valley Fever/*transmission , Rift Valley fever virus/*physiology, Animals ; Comoros/epidemiology ; Livestock/virology ; Rift Valley Fever/epidemiology ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/prevention & control ; Zoonoses/transmission
مستخلص: The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
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معلومات مُعتمدة: BB/T004312/1 United Kingdom BB_ Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; United Kingdom BHF_ British Heart Foundation; MR/P026400/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council; United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; United Kingdom CSO_ Chief Scientist Office
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20210923 Date Completed: 20211019 Latest Revision: 20240815
رمز التحديث: 20240815
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8458460
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8
PMID: 34552082
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8