دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.
المؤلفون: Crump RE; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.; Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Huang CI; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.; Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Spencer SEF; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.; The Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Brown PE; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.; Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Shampa C; Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA), Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo., Mwamba Miaka E; Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA), Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo., Rock KS; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.; Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
المصدر: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2022 Jul 11; Vol. 16 (7), pp. e0010599. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 11 (Print Publication: 2022).
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101291488 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1935-2735 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19352727 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Trypanosomiasis, African*/epidemiology , Trypanosomiasis, African*/prevention & control, Animals ; Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Trypanosoma brucei gambiense
مستخلص: Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants-one with, and one without animal transmission-to the human case data from 2000-2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However-even in these regions-we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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معلومات مُعتمدة: INV-005121 United States GATES Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20220711 Date Completed: 20220725 Latest Revision: 20240923
رمز التحديث: 20240923
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC9302778
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599
PMID: 35816487
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599