دورية أكاديمية
Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.
| العنوان: | Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Davis KT; Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Robles MD; The Nature Conservancy, Tucson, AZ 85719., Kemp KB; The Nature Conservancy, Portland, OR 97214.; Region 6 Ecology Program, US Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA 98801., Higuera PE; Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Chapman T; Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Program, Chief Conservation Office, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22201., Metlen KL; The Nature Conservancy, Portland, OR 97214., Peeler JL; Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Rodman KC; Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011., Woolley T; The Nature Conservancy, Flagstaff, AZ 86001., Addington RN; The Nature Conservancy, Boulder, CO 80302., Buma BJ; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado-Denver, Denver, CO 80204., Cansler CA; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.; Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Case MJ; The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA 98121., Collins BM; Center for Fire Research and Outreach, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720., Coop JD; School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, Gunnison, CO 81231., Dobrowski SZ; Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Gill NS; Department of Natural Resources Management, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409., Haffey C; New Mexico Forestry Division, Energy, Minerals, Natural Resources Division, Santa Fe, NM 87505., Harris LB; Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Harvey BJ; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Haugo RD; The Nature Conservancy, Portland, OR 97214., Hurteau MD; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131., Kulakowski D; Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610., Littlefield CE; Conservation Science Partners, Truckee, CA 96161., McCauley LA; The Nature Conservancy, Tucson, AZ 85719., Povak N; US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Placerville, CA 95667-5199., Shive KL; The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, CA 95811., Smith E; The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, CA 95811., Stevens JT; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131., Stevens-Rumann CS; Forest and Rangeland Stewardship Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.; Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523., Taylor AH; Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Tepley AJ; Department of Forestry, Fire, and Rangeland Management, Cal Poly Humboldt University, Arcata, CA 95521., Young DJN; Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616., Andrus RA; School of Environment, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164., Battaglia MA; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO 80526., Berkey JK; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Missoula, MT 59806., Busby SU; Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207., Carlson AR; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706., Chambers ME; Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523., Dodson EK; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Ogden, UT 84401., Donato DC; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.; Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, WA 98504., Downing WM; Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331., Fornwalt PJ; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO 80526., Halofsky JS; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.; Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, WA 98504., Hoffman A; Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610., Holz A; Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207., Iniguez JM; Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Flagstaff, AZ 86001., Krawchuk MA; Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331., Kreider MR; Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Larson AJ; Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812.; Wilderness Institute, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Meigs GW; Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, WA 98504.; Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331., Roccaforte JP; Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011., Rother MT; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403., Safford H; Vibrant Planet, Incline Village, NV 89451.; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616., Schaedel M; The Nature Conservancy, Missoula, MT 59802., Sibold JS; Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.; Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523., Singleton MP; School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011., Turner MG; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706., Urza AK; Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Reno, NV 89512., Clark-Wolf KD; Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Yocom L; Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322., Fontaine JB; Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150, Australia., Campbell JL; Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331. |
| المصدر: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2023 Mar 14; Vol. 120 (11), pp. e2208120120. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 06. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Fires* , Wildfires* , Tracheophyta*, Climate ; Climate Change |
| مستخلص: | Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. |
| References: | PLoS One. 2015 Dec 07;10(12):e0143619. (PMID: 26641818) Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Feb;28(4):1544-1559. (PMID: 34800319) Ecol Appl. 2021 Dec;31(8):e02433. (PMID: 34339088) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Nov 9;118(45):. (PMID: 34697246) Bioscience. 2019 May 1;69(5):379-388. (PMID: 31086421) Glob Chang Biol. 2017 Oct;23(10):4117-4132. (PMID: 28447370) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Mar 26;116(13):6193-6198. (PMID: 30858310) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Jun 4;116(23):11319-11328. (PMID: 31110003) Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Mar;20(3):1008-15. (PMID: 24132866) Ecol Appl. 2021 Dec;31(8):e02431. (PMID: 34339067) Ecol Lett. 2018 Feb;21(2):243-252. (PMID: 29230936) Oecologia. 2005 Mar;143(1):1-10. (PMID: 15688212) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Jun 22;118(25):. (PMID: 34161283) Trends Ecol Evol. 2009 Nov;24(11):599-605. (PMID: 19683830) Ecology. 2010 Apr;91(4):1124-31. (PMID: 20462126) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Nov 17;106 Suppl 2:19685-92. (PMID: 19805104) Bioscience. 2020 Aug 1;70(8):659-673. (PMID: 32821066) Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Jan;19(1):241-51. (PMID: 23504735) Ecol Appl. 2007 Dec;17(8):2145-51. (PMID: 18213958) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 18;113(42):11770-11775. (PMID: 27791053) Nat Commun. 2021 Feb 23;12(1):1242. (PMID: 33623042) |
| معلومات مُعتمدة: | G18AC00325 DOI North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center; G20AC00205 DOI North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: climate change; ecological transformation; post-fire regeneration; vegetation transition; wildfire |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20230306 Date Completed: 20230308 Latest Revision: 20230413 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240628 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10089158 |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2208120120 |
| PMID: | 36877837 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1091-6490 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2208120120 |