دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US.
المؤلفون: Park SW; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: swp2@princeton.edu., Messacar K; Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA., Douek DC; Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA., Spaulding AB; Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA., Metcalf CJE; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA., Grenfell BT; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
المصدر: Epidemics [Epidemics] 2024 Mar; Vol. 46, pp. 100736. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 18.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 101484711 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1878-0067 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 18780067 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Epidemics Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Enterovirus D, Human* , COVID-19*/epidemiology , Neuromuscular Diseases*/epidemiology , Myelitis*/epidemiology , Enterovirus Infections*/epidemiology , Enterovirus Infections*/prevention & control , Central Nervous System Viral Diseases*, Humans ; Disease Outbreaks
مستخلص: Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: COVID- 19; Enterovirus D68; Non-pharmaceutical intervention; infectious disease moeling
SCR Disease Name: acute flaccid myelitis
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20231220 Date Completed: 20240312 Latest Revision: 20240312
رمز التحديث: 20240312
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736
PMID: 38118274
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1878-0067
DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736