دورية أكاديمية
An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.
| العنوان: | An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale. |
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| المؤلفون: | Touloupou P; School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom., Fronterre C; CHICAS, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom., Cano J; Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN), WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of the Congo., Prada JM; School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom., Smith M; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA., Kontoroupis P; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Brown P; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Rivera RC; Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA., de Vlas SJ; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Gunawardena S; Department of Parasitology, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka., Irvine MA; Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada., Njenga SM; Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya., Reimer L; Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom., Seife F; Disease Prevention and Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Sharma S; Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College, Kolkata, India., Michael E; Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA., Stolk WA; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Pulan R; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Spencer SEF; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom., Hollingsworth TD; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. |
| المصدر: | Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America [Clin Infect Dis] 2024 Apr 25; Vol. 78 (Supplement_2), pp. S108-S116. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Oxford University Press Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9203213 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1537-6591 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10584838 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Clin Infect Dis Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: Jan. 2011- : Oxford : Oxford University Press Original Publication: Chicago, IL : The University of Chicago Press, c1992- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Elephantiasis, Filarial*/epidemiology , Elephantiasis, Filarial*/prevention & control, Humans ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Disease Eradication/methods ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Filaricides/therapeutic use |
| مستخلص: | Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases. Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. E. M. reports funding from the National Institutes of Health, Microsoft Research, and Florida Blue Foundation. S. E. F. S. reports research funding from EndFund. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed. (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 001 International WHO_ World Health Organization; INV-030046 United States GATES Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: ensemble models; fine-scale spatial projections; intervention impact; linking maps with models; lymphatic filariasis |
| المشرفين على المادة: | 0 (Filaricides) |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240425 Date Completed: 20240425 Latest Revision: 20240923 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240923 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11045016 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/cid/ciae071 |
| PMID: | 38662704 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1537-6591 |
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| DOI: | 10.1093/cid/ciae071 |