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Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.
المؤلفون: Aslan IH; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America., Pourtois JD; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America., Chamberlin AJ; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America., Mitchell KR; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America., Mari L; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Lwiza KM; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, New York, New York, United States of America., Wood CL; School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America., Mordecai EA; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America., Yu A; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America., Tuan R; Pasteur Institute, São Paulo Health Public Office, São Paulo, Brazil., Palasio RGS; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Monteiro AMV; National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil., Kirk D; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America., Athni TS; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America., Sokolow SH; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America., N'Goran EK; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire., Diakite NR; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire., Ouattara M; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire., Gatto M; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Casagrandi R; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Little DC; Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom., Ozretich RW; Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom., Norman R; Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom., Allan F; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, United Kingdom., Brierley AS; Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, United Kingdom., Liu P; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, New York, New York, United States of America., Pereira TA; Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America., De Leo GA; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America.
المصدر: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2024 Jun 10; Vol. 18 (6), pp. e0011836. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 10 (Print Publication: 2024).
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101291488 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1935-2735 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19352727 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Temperature* , Schistosoma haematobium*/physiology , Schistosoma mansoni*/physiology, Animals ; Humans ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Biomphalaria/parasitology ; Schistosomiasis/transmission ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/transmission ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/epidemiology ; Bulinus/parasitology ; Schistosomiasis haematobia/transmission ; Schistosomiasis haematobia/epidemiology ; Prevalence
مستخلص: The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7°C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3°C and 23.6-27.9°C (95% CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Aslan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
التعليقات: Update of: medRxiv. 2024 May 21:2024.01.04.24300851. doi: 10.1101/2024.01.04.24300851. (PMID: 38826336)
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معلومات مُعتمدة: R01 AI102918 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; R01 AI168097 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; R35 GM133439 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS; T32 GM144273 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20240610 Date Completed: 20240626 Latest Revision: 20240628
رمز التحديث: 20240628
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC11207148
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011836
PMID: 38857289
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011836