دورية أكاديمية
Foresight in public health: a tutorial on application and insights on challenges from the PHIRI foresight exercise.
| العنوان: | Foresight in public health: a tutorial on application and insights on challenges from the PHIRI foresight exercise. |
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| المؤلفون: | Mutubuki EN; Centre for Public Health, Health Services and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Moye-Holz D; Centre for Public Health, Health Services and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Peyroteo M; UNIDEMI, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal.; Laboratório Associado de Sistemas Inteligentes, LASI, Guimarães, Portugal., Lapão LV; UNIDEMI, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal.; Laboratório Associado de Sistemas Inteligentes, LASI, Guimarães, Portugal.; WHO Collaborating Center on Health Workforce Policy and Planning, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal., Hilderink HBM; Centre for Public Health, Health Services and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands. |
| المصدر: | European journal of public health [Eur J Public Health] 2024 Jul 01; Vol. 34 (Supplement_1), pp. i87-i93. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Oxford University Press Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 9204966 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1464-360X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 11011262 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Eur J Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: Oxford : Oxford University Press Original Publication: Stockholm, Sweden : Almqvist & Wiksell International, c1991- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Public Health*, Humans |
| مستخلص: | Background: The application of foresight to the field of public health is limited. There is growing need to anticipate uncertain future trends and to plan for them. Foresight provides tools to experts and policymakers to discuss and plan for possible futures. Hence, the aim of this study is to illustrate how the foresight six-step approach can be applied in public health, and to provide recommendations on dealing with challenges, drawn from the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) foresight exercise. Methods: In this tutorial, we describe the six-step approach as part of foresight methodology and give examples of possible challenges. Step 1 comprises the formulation of study objectives. Step 2 focuses on developing a conceptual model and applying the Demographic Economic Sociocultural Technological Ecological and Political-Institutional (DESTEP) framework to identify and prioritize driving forces for the topic of interest. In Step 3, a time horizon and spatial level are defined. Step 4 discusses scenario logics. Steps 5 and 6 discuss different types of scenarios and associated tools for analyses. Possible challenges encountered whilst applying the foresight methodology at each of the steps, were drawn from experiences during PHIRI foresight exercise. Results: Challenges associated with applying the foresight six-step approach included: formulating concise objectives, developing a conceptual model, understanding driving forces and uncertainty and difficulties in building scenarios. Conclusions: Understanding concepts used in the six-step approach and how they relate to each other remained difficult. Support from foresight experts, conducting more foresight exercises, tutorials and guidelines can enhance understanding and support building capacity. (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.) |
| References: | Eur J Public Health. 2020 Aug 1;30(4):616. (PMID: 32556175) Int J Equity Health. 2019 Jun 25;18(1):100. (PMID: 31238946) PLoS One. 2012;7(5):e33317. (PMID: 22590491) Eur J Public Health. 2020 Feb 1;30(1):30-35. (PMID: 31647528) Demography. 2012 Nov;49(4):1259-83. (PMID: 23055232) |
| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 101018317 European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240701 Date Completed: 20240701 Latest Revision: 20240703 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240703 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11215316 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/eurpub/ckae040 |
| PMID: | 38946445 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1464-360X |
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| DOI: | 10.1093/eurpub/ckae040 |