دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission.
المؤلفون: Crump RE; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK., Aliee M; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK., Sutherland SA; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, UK., Huang CI; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK., Crowley EH; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK., Spencer SEF; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK., Keeling MJ; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK.; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, UK., Shampa C; Programme National de Lutte Contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA)-DRC, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo., Mwamba Miaka E; Programme National de Lutte Contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA)-DRC, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo., Rock KS; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK. k.s.rock@warwick.ac.uk.; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Academic Loop Road, Coventry, UK. k.s.rock@warwick.ac.uk.
المصدر: Parasites & vectors [Parasit Vectors] 2024 Aug 09; Vol. 17 (1), pp. 332. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 09.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101462774 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1756-3305 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 17563305 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Parasit Vectors Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: London : BioMed Central
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Trypanosomiasis, African*/transmission , Trypanosomiasis, African*/epidemiology , Trypanosomiasis, African*/prevention & control , Disease Eradication*, Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology ; Animals ; Humans ; Trypanosoma brucei gambiense ; Bayes Theorem ; Tsetse Flies/parasitology
مستخلص: Background: Sleeping sickness (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, gHAT) is a vector-borne disease targeted for global elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. There are, however, unknowns that have the potential to hinder the achievement and measurement of this goal. These include asymptomatic gHAT infections (inclusive of the potential to self-cure or harbour skin-only infections) and whether gHAT infection in animals can contribute to the transmission cycle in humans.
Methods: Using modelling, we explore how cryptic (undetected) transmission impacts the monitoring of progress towards and the achievement of the EoT goal. We have developed gHAT models that include either asymptomatic or animal transmission, and compare these to a baseline gHAT model without either of these transmission routes, to explore the potential role of cryptic infections on the EoT goal. Each model was independently calibrated to five different health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using available historical human case data for 2000-2020 (obtained from the World Health Organization's HAT Atlas). We applied a novel Bayesian sequential updating approach for the asymptomatic model to enable us to combine statistical information about this type of transmission from each health zone.
Results: Our results suggest that, when matched to past case data, we estimated similar numbers of new human infections between model variants, although human infections were slightly higher in the models with cryptic infections. We simulated the continuation of screen-confirm-and-treat interventions, and found that forward projections from the animal and asymptomatic transmission models produced lower probabilities of EoT than the baseline model; however, cryptic infections did not prevent EoT from being achieved eventually under this approach.
Conclusions: This study is the first to simulate an (as-yet-to-be available) screen-and-treat strategy and found that removing a parasitological confirmation step was predicted to have a more noticeable benefit to transmission reduction under the asymptomatic model compared with the others. Our simulations suggest vector control could greatly impact all transmission routes in all models, although this resource-intensive intervention should be carefully prioritised.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
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معلومات مُعتمدة: OPP1177824 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; INV-005121 United States GATES Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; OPP1184344 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT); Animal; Asymptomatic; Elimination; Infection reservoir; Model comparison; Modelling; Transmission
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20240809 Date Completed: 20240810 Latest Revision: 20240812
رمز التحديث: 20240813
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC11313002
DOI: 10.1186/s13071-024-06404-4
PMID: 39123265
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1756-3305
DOI:10.1186/s13071-024-06404-4