دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Near future variations in temperature extremes in northeastern Iran under CMIP6 projections.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Near future variations in temperature extremes in northeastern Iran under CMIP6 projections.
المؤلفون: Chamanehfar S; Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran., Baygi MM; Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran., Modaresi F; Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. Fmodaresi@um.ac.ir., Babaeian I; Climate Research Institute, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Mashhad, Iran.
المصدر: Environmental monitoring and assessment [Environ Monit Assess] 2024 Sep 23; Vol. 196 (10), pp. 972. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 23.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Springer Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8508350 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1573-2959 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01676369 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Environ Monit Assess Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: 1998- : Dordrecht : Springer
Original Publication: Dordrecht, Holland ; Boston : D. Reidel Pub. Co., c1981-
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Climate Change* , Temperature* , Environmental Monitoring*/methods, Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons
مستخلص: Extreme air temperatures which are of significance in plant growth are influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the climate change effects on temperature extreme indices (TEIs) in northeastern Iran based on the CMIP6 projections. For this purpose, five extreme indices including maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of minimum temperature (TNn), cold nights (TN10p), warm nights (TN90p), and summer days (SU25) which are effective on plant growth were evaluated. The projections of the three Earth system models including ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0 were assessed under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the period 2026-2050 compared to the historical period (1989-2014). The models' projections were evaluated by statistical tests on the changes in the average and trend of data. Results showed that the MRI-ESM2-0 model revealed the best efficiency compared to the other models. The projections of all models and scenarios indicated a significant increase in the average of TXx and SU25 indices over the study area at the confidence level of 95% by 1.6 to 2.4 °C, as well as 15 to 18 days under the three scenarios. Also, the results exhibited a significant increasing trend in TN90p and a decreasing one in TN10p overall province at confidence level of 95%. These changes will lead to an increase in evapotranspiration of the plants and an increase in agricultural water demand, and as a result, a decrease in the yield of some main products like wheat and saffron which are the main products in the study area.
(© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)
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فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: CMIP6; Climate change; ETCCDI; Khorasan Razavi; Statistical tests; Temperature extreme indices
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20240923 Date Completed: 20240923 Latest Revision: 20240923
رمز التحديث: 20240923
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-13125-9
PMID: 39311989
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1573-2959
DOI:10.1007/s10661-024-13125-9