دورية أكاديمية
The Impact of Tropical SST Biases on the S2S Precipitation Forecast Skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS Global Coupled Model.
| العنوان: | The Impact of Tropical SST Biases on the S2S Precipitation Forecast Skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS Global Coupled Model. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | BAI, HEDANQIU, BIN LI, MEHRA, AVICHAL, MEIXNER, JESSICA, MOORTHI, SHRINIVAS, RAY, SULAGNA, STEFANOVA, LYDIA, JIANDE WANG, JUN WANG, WORTHEN, DENISE, FANGLIN YANG, STAN, CRISTIANA |
| المصدر: | Weather & Forecasting; Jun2023, Vol. 38 Issue 6, p937-952, 16p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | PRECIPITATION forecasting, OCEAN temperature, STATISTICAL bias, REGRESSION analysis, ROSSBY waves, CONUS |
| مصطلحات جغرافية: | GULF of Mexico |
| مستخلص: | This work investigates the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) biases on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S) precipitation forecast skill over the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) coupled model Prototype 6. Boreal summer (June-September) and winter (December-March) for 2011-18 were analyzed. The impact of tropical west Pacific (WP) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) warm SST biases is evaluated using multivariate linear regression analysis. A warm SST bias over theWP influences the CONUS precipitation remotely through a Rossby wave train in both seasons. During boreal winter, a warm SST bias over the TNA partly affects the magnitude of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH)'s center, which in the reforecasts is weaker than in reanalysis. The weaker NASH favors an enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to increased precipitation over the Southeast United States. Compared to reanalysis, during boreal summer, the NASH's center is also weaker and in addition, its position is displaced to the northeast. The displacement further affects the CONUS summer precipitation. The SST biases over the two tropical regions and their impacts become stronger as the forecast lead increases from week 1 to 4. These tropical biases explain up to 10%of the CONUS precipitation biases on the S2S time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Complementary Index |
كن أول من يترك تعليقا!