التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration's National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. |
| المؤلفون: |
Deng, Guo, Shen, Xueshun, Du, Jun, Gong, Jiandong, Tong, Hua, Deng, Liantang, Xu, Zhifang, Chen, Jing, Sun, Jian, Wang, Yong, Hu, Jiangkai, Wang, Jianjie, Chen, Mingxuan, Yuan, Huiling, Zhang, Yutao, Li, Hongqi, Wang, Yuanzhe, Gao, Li, Sheng, Li, Li, Da |
| المصدر: |
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences; May2024, Vol. 41 Issue 5, p767-776, 10p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
OLYMPIC Winter Games, METEOROLOGICAL research, WEATHER forecasting, FORECASTING, RESEARCH & development projects, METEOROLOGICAL services |
| مصطلحات جغرافية: |
BEIJING (China) |
| Abstract (English): |
Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas, there is a deficiency of relevant research, operational techniques, and experience. This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, achieved breakthroughs in research on short- and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions. Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed. A comprehensive framework, known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics, was established. Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China. The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality. This included achievements such as the "100-meter level, minute level" downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days. Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed, and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA's operational national forecasting systems. These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative, in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA. This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO's high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project (SMART2022), and is also a part of their Regional Association (RA) II Research Development Project (Hangzhou RDP). Therefore, the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming high-impact weather forecasting activities. This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Chinese): |
摘要: 精准气象预报是历届冬奥会成功举办的最重要条件之一。北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会是大陆性冬季风主导的气候条件下内陆地区举办的一次冬奥盛会,但寒冷、大风、干燥、降水少、温度变化大等气候特点对北京冬奥会的气象服务保障提出了严峻考验。此外,赛场区域分布广、赛区复杂地形复杂、赛事项目安排紧、专项保障要求高,进一步提升了服务难度。高精度山地气象预报本身就是国际难题,特别在预报经验几乎为零的山地赛场,冬奥组委要求:"一场一策"、"一项一策",精准预报难度极大,对北京冬奥气象保障服务工作提出了前所未有的挑战。中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心承担着国家级数值预报业务系统的研发、建设和改进任务。面向冬奥服务保障需求,数值中心专门组建了冬奥预报服务攻关团队,基于自主研发的一体化数值预报模式,研究了复杂地形下冬奥保障关键天气的短、中期集合预报技术,包括精细区域模式及同化技术改进、高分辨区域集合构建、产品偏差订正、无缝隙融合产品研发等,发展了面向冬奥气象保障服务的精细无缝隙数值天气预报技术方法。核心内容包括:改进的区域模式动力框架(三维参考大气和预估修正迭代算法)、随高度增加的侧边界方案,解决了冬奥预报"精"、"细"关键技术;发展了地面自动站稠密观测资料及国产风云卫星同化技术,形成了以冬奥赛区为中心的京津冀区域1公里分辨率、1小时更新的0-24小时冬奥精细预报产品;构建了复杂地形条件下多尺度混合初值扰动、时空尺度相关的物理过程随机扰动方案的冬奥保障3km高分辨集合预报系统,提供了山地赛场0-36小时集合预报信息;发展了5种基于统计和机器学习方法的数值预报产品订正融合方法,构建了0-360小时赛区全覆盖的冬奥无缝隙客观天气预报技术和产品支撑体系,在复杂地形条件下精细天气预报攻关工作中取得了突破性进展。取得新技术30项,形成4大产品体系60余种产品,建立了基于中国气象局自主研发模式的"百米级、分钟级"、0-15天预报时效、赛区全覆盖的冬奥高精度天气预报服务技术体系,实现了中国气象局自主研发产品在重大活动气象保障中全覆盖、挑大梁。团队研发的冬奥预报产品在冬奥预报团队冬训、冬奥及冬残奥赛事活动保障中均获得全方位应用,为运动员官方训练、比赛日程调整提供了重要支撑,受到了冬奥气象预报服务团队和新闻媒体的好评。冬奥攻关发展的核心技术方法,已经集成和应用于国家级业务预报系统,在日常和重大活动中持续发挥作用;部分成果与杭州亚运会及成都大运会开展服务对接,后冬奥时代继续发挥作用。冬奥会中研发的气象条件预测技术与科技冬奥专项其它研究内容一起,得到了国际专家的认可,纳入世界气象组织高影响天气预报示范项目,可为国际高影响天气高精度预报技术研发和应用提供中国经验。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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