التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Insurance Voting in the Centre: An Experimental Approach. |
| المؤلفون: |
Fredén, Annika, Bruinsma, Bastiaan, Theorin, Nora, Oscarsson, Henrik |
| المصدر: |
International Journal of Public Opinion Research; Autumn2024, Vol. 36 Issue 3, p1-11, 11p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
PROPORTIONAL representation, GREEN movement, POLITICAL parties, PUBLIC opinion polls, ELECTIONS |
| مستخلص: |
Recent research suggests that to help their preferred coalition win an election, voters are willing to vote for a political party other than their preferred choice. In this field, voting for smaller parties under proportional representation is an under-studied feature. A crucial factor to estimate the chances for smaller parties is polls. In this study, we analyze the influence of opinion polls on switching vote choice to a smaller party when the party polls are at different levels. Building on an original survey experiment, we elaborate the potential differences in impact on insurance voting for a small party with looser or stronger association with a government alternative. The focus is the 2022 Swedish general election and the three smallest parties in parliament: the Green Party (center-left), the Christian Democrats (right), and the Liberals (center-right). The experiment had nine different conditions where each of these parties was placed at different levels of opinion: below, at, and above the parliamentary threshold, while holding all other factors constant. We find that poll-induced insurance voting is most prevalent for the party with the strongest preference for a government alternative (the Christian Democrats) and least prevalent for the party with a more issue-focused stance (the Greens). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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