التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England. |
| المؤلفون: |
Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise |
| المصدر: |
PLoS Computational Biology; 9/23/2024, Vol. 20 Issue 9, p1-34, 34p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, HOSPITAL admission & discharge, SARS-CoV-2, DEMOGRAPHIC change |
| مستخلص: |
We discuss the invasion of the Omicron BA.1 variant into England as a paradigm for real-time model fitting and projection. Here we use a mixture of simple SIR-type models, analysis of the early data and a more complex age-structure model fit to the outbreak to understand the dynamics. In particular, we highlight that early data shows that the invading Omicron variant had a substantial growth advantage over the resident Delta variant. However, early data does not allow us to reliably infer other key epidemiological parameters—such as generation time and severity—which influence the expected peak hospital numbers. With more complete epidemic data from January 2022 are we able to capture the true scale of the epidemic in terms of both infections and hospital admissions, driven by different infection characteristics of Omicron compared to Delta and a substantial shift in estimated precautionary behaviour during December. This work highlights the challenges of real time forecasting, in a rapidly changing environment with limited information on the variant's epidemiological characteristics. Author summary: One of the key challenges for modellers at the start of any outbreak is to predict its likely scale and the associated burden on the health systems. This was the scenario in December of 2021, when the UK was faced with the invasion of the Omicron (BA.1) variant. For the Omicron BA.1 wave the peak in hospital admission was initially overestimated due to the simplifying assumption that Omicron would behave like a faster spreading version of the Delta variant, and that there would be little or no change to population behaviour during the wave. In this paper, we use a range of models and analyses to understand the challenges of correctly predicting the peak. Compared with forecasts made from the earliest data, the peak was reduced by the shorter infectious period of Omicron, its lower severity but mostly by changes in behaviour and testing over the Christmas holiday season. Historic projections made in December of 2021 that assumed a set of imposed mitigation measures were therefore more accurate than those that assumed no controls, although in practice the controls were largely self-imposed. This paper therefore highlights the challenges of forecasting the likely scale of outbreaks and the importance of understanding the population response to public health messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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