A methodology is described for studying changes in wheat and maize production in Hungary as a result of future climate change. A Geographic Information System is used to map agroclimatic zones of the country and spatial shifts in future production. Detailed biological crop models are used for simulating crop response to the changed climate. Future climate scenarios are derived from a variety of General Circulation Models. Once yield response in different agroclimatic zones has been derived, analysis of farm-level impacts and possible management adjustments to current agricultural practices can be carried out. Regional and national changes in agroclimatic potential can then be identified, and the effects of possible adjustments assessed. The methodology is illustrated for one cereal-producing region of Hungary.
