تقرير
Forecasting >300 MeV SEP events: Extending SPARX to high energies
| العنوان: | Forecasting >300 MeV SEP events: Extending SPARX to high energies |
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| المؤلفون: | Waterfall, Charlotte O. G., Dalla, Silvia, Marsh, Mike S., Laitinen, Timo, Hutchinson, Adam |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | Astrophysics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| الوصف: | The forecasting of solar energetic particles (SEPs) is a prominent area of space weather research. Numerous forecasting models exist that predict SEP event properties at proton energies <100MeV. One of these models is the SPARX system, a physics-based forecasting tool that calculates >10MeV and >60MeV flux profiles within minutes of a flare being detected. This work describes SPARX-H, the extension of SPARX to forecast SEP events above 300MeV . SPARX-H predicts fluxes in three high energy channels up to several hundred MeV. Correlations between SEP peak flux and peak intensity of the associated solar flare are seen to be weak at high energies, but improved when events are grouped based on the field polarity during the event. Initial results from this new high energy forecasting tool are presented here and the applications of high energy forecasts are discussed. Additionally, the new high energy version of SPARX is tested on a set of historic SEP events. We see that SPARX-H performs best when predicting peak fluxes from events with source locations in well-connected regions, where many large SEP events tend to originate. Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Weather 13 pages, 5 figures |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2023SW003445 |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.01530 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsarx.2306.01530 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
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