Prediction-powered Generalization of Causal Inferences

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Prediction-powered Generalization of Causal Inferences
المؤلفون: Demirel, Ilker, Alaa, Ahmed, Philippakis, Anthony, Sontag, David
سنة النشر: 2024
المجموعة: Computer Science
Statistics
مصطلحات موضوعية: Statistics - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Machine Learning
الوصف: Causal inferences from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may not pertain to a target population where some effect modifiers have a different distribution. Prior work studies generalizing the results of a trial to a target population with no outcome but covariate data available. We show how the limited size of trials makes generalization a statistically infeasible task, as it requires estimating complex nuisance functions. We develop generalization algorithms that supplement the trial data with a prediction model learned from an additional observational study (OS), without making any assumptions on the OS. We theoretically and empirically show that our methods facilitate better generalization when the OS is high-quality, and remain robust when it is not, and e.g., have unmeasured confounding.
Comment: International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2024
نوع الوثيقة: Working Paper
URL الوصول: http://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02873
رقم الأكسشن: edsarx.2406.02873
قاعدة البيانات: arXiv