دورية أكاديمية
Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework
| العنوان: | Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework |
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| المؤلفون: | Wisdom S. Avusuglo, Qing Han, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Nicola Bragazzi, Ali Asgary, Ali Ahmadi, James Orbinski, Jianhong Wu, Bruce Mellado, Jude Dzevela Kong |
| المصدر: | BMC Public Health, Vol 24, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024) |
| بيانات النشر: | BMC, 2024. |
| سنة النشر: | 2024 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Public aspects of medicine |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | COVID-19, Epidemiology, Self-medication, Age-structured, Disease model, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270 |
| الوصف: | Abstract Objective To assess the impact of self-medication on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 across different age groups, examine the interplay of vaccination and self-medication in disease spread, and identify the age group most prone to self-medication. Methods We developed an age-structured compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early dynamics of COVID-19. Age-structured data from the Government of Gauteng, encompassing the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases, were used to calibrate the model through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. Subsequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted on the model parameters. Results We found that self-medication is predominant among the age group 15-64 (74.52%), followed by the age group 0-14 (34.02%), and then the age group 65+ (11.41%). The mean values of the basic reproduction number, the size of the first epidemic peak (the highest magnitude of the disease), and the time of the first epidemic peak (when the first highest magnitude occurs) are 4.16499, 241,715 cases, and 190.376 days, respectively. Moreover, we observed that self-medication among individuals aged 15-64 results in the highest spreading rate of COVID-19 at the onset of the outbreak and has the greatest impact on the first epidemic peak and its timing. Conclusion Studies aiming to understand the dynamics of diseases in areas prone to self-medication should account for this practice. There is a need for a campaign against COVID-19-related self-medication, specifically targeting the active population (ages 15-64). |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1471-2458 84980990 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2458 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12889-024-18984-y |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/4804d7af06d84980990f0c8f03e78d1d |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.4804d7af06d84980990f0c8f03e78d1d |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 14712458 84980990 |
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| DOI: | 10.1186/s12889-024-18984-y |