دورية أكاديمية

Methods on COVID-19 Epidemic Curve Estimation During Emergency Based on Baidu Search Engine and ILI Traditional Surveillance in Beijing, China

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Methods on COVID-19 Epidemic Curve Estimation During Emergency Based on Baidu Search Engine and ILI Traditional Surveillance in Beijing, China
المؤلفون: Ting Zhang, Liuyang Yang, Xuan Han, Guohui Fan, Jie Qian, Xuancheng Hu, Shengjie Lai, Zhongjie Li, Zhimin Liu, Luzhao Feng, Weizhong Yang
المصدر: Engineering, Vol 31, Iss , Pp 112-119 (2023)
بيانات النشر: Elsevier, 2023.
سنة النشر: 2023
المجموعة: LCC:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, Epidemic curve, Baidu search engine, Influenza-like illness, Deep learning, Transmission dynamics model, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040
الوصف: Surveillance is an essential work on infectious diseases prevention and control. When the pandemic occurred, the inadequacy of traditional surveillance was exposed, but it also provided a valuable opportunity to explore new surveillance methods. This study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BF.7 in Beijing under the emergent situation using Baidu index and influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance. A novel hybrid model (multiattention bidirectional gated recurrent unit (MABG)–susceptible–exposed–infected–removed (SEIR)) was developed, which leveraged a deep learning algorithm (MABG) to scrutinize the past records of ILI occurrences and the Baidu index of diverse symptoms such as fever, pyrexia, cough, sore throat, anti-fever medicine, and runny nose. By considering the current Baidu index and the correlation between ILI cases and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, a transmission dynamics model (SEIR) was formulated to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of SARS-CoV-2. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when conventional surveillance measures have been suspended temporarily, cases of ILI can serve as a useful indicator for estimating the epidemiological trends of COVID-19. In the specific case of Beijing, it has been ascertained that cumulative infection attack rate surpass 80.25% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 77.51%–82.99%) since December 17, 2022, with the apex of the outbreak projected to transpire on December 12. The culmination of existing patients is expected to occur three days subsequent to this peak. Effective reproduction number (Rt) represents the average number of secondary infections generated from a single infected individual at a specific point in time during an epidemic, remained below 1 since December 17, 2022. The traditional disease surveillance systems should be complemented with information from modern surveillance data such as online data sources with advanced technical support. Modern surveillance channels should be used primarily in emerging infectious and disease outbreaks. Syndrome surveillance on COVID-19 should be established to following on the epidemic, clinical severity, and medical resource demand.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2095-8099
Relation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809923003752; https://doaj.org/toc/2095-8099
DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2023.08.006
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/4d6cadf1c7ee4732aca6162d6afb51a6
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.4d6cadf1c7ee4732aca6162d6afb51a6
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:20958099
DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2023.08.006