This study aimed to assess the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify the early progression to severe disease in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective-cohort study was conducted among patients with CAP admitted to a university hospital between October 2020 and December 2021. The endpoint of interest was the progression to severe CAP, defined as the requirement for a mechanical ventilator, a vasopressor, or death within 72 h after hospital admission. Among 260 patients, 53 (25.6%) had early progression to severe CAP. The median NEWS2 of the early progression group was higher than that of the non-progression group [8 (6–9) vs. 7 (5–8), p = 0.015, respectively]. The AUROC of NEWS2 to predict early progression to severe CAP was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52–0.70), while IDSA/ATS minor criteria ≥ 3 had AUROC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48–0.65). The combination of NEWS2 ≥ 8, albumin level < 3 g/dL and BUN ≥ 30 mg/dL improved AUROC from 0.61 to 0.71 (p = 0.015). NEWS2 and IDSA/ATS minor criteria showed fair predictive-accuracy in predicting progression to severe CAP. The NEWS2 cut-off ≥ 8 in combination with low albumin and uremia improved predictive-accuracy, and could be easily used in general practice.
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