The optimal initial surgical extent for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) remains controversial. Previous studies on serum calcitonin are limited to reporting the calcitonin threshold according to anatomical disease burden. Here, we evaluated whether preoperative calcitonin levels can be used to predict optimal surgical extent. We retrospectively reviewed the 170 patients with MTC at a tertiary Korean hospital from 1994 to 2019. We extracted data on preoperative calcitonin level, primary tumor size and the number and location of lymph node metastases (LNMs). To evaluate disease extent, we divided the patients into five groups: no LNM, central LNM, ipsilateral lateral LNM, contralateral lateral LNM, and distant metastasis. We calculated the positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) for multiple categories of preoperative calcitonin levels. Preoperative calcitonin level positively correlated with primary tumor size (rho = 0.744, p < 0.001) and LNM number (rho = 0.537, p < 0.001). Preoperative calcitonin thresholds of 20, 200, and 500 pg/mL were associated with the presence of ipsilateral lateral LNM, contralateral lateral LNM, and distant metastasis, respectively. The negative LRs were 0.1 at a preoperative calcitonin cut-off of 100 pg/mL in the central LNM, 0.18 at a cut-off of 300 pg/mL in the ipsilateral lateral LNM, and 0 at a cut-off of 300 pg/mL in the contralateral lateral LNM. The preoperative calcitonin level correlates with disease extent and has diagnostic value for predicting LNM extent. Our results suggest that the preoperative calcitonin level can be used to determine optimal initial surgical extent.
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