دورية أكاديمية
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.
| العنوان: | The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing. |
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| المؤلفون: | Marshall J; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA jmarsh@mit.edu., Armour KC; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA., Scott JR; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA., Kostov Y; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA., Hausmann U; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA., Ferreira D; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK., Shepherd TG; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK., Bitz CM; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. |
| المصدر: | Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences [Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci] 2014 Jul 13; Vol. 372 (2019), pp. 20130040. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: The Royal Society Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101133385 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 1364-503X (Print) Linking ISSN: 1364503X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: London : The Royal Society, c1996- |
| مستخلص: | In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. |
| References: | Nature. 2008 Sep 11;455(7210):E2-3; discussion E4-5. (PMID: 18784660) Science. 2002 May 3;296(5569):895-9. (PMID: 11988571) Science. 2003 Oct 10;302(5643):273-5. (PMID: 14551433) Nature. 2008 Sep 11;455(7210):E1-2; discussion E4-5. (PMID: 18784659) Nature. 2008 Jan 3;451(7174):53-6. (PMID: 18172495) Nature. 2008 Sep 11;455(7210):E3-4; discussion E4-5. (PMID: 18784661) |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Southern Ocean; climate model; greenhouse gas forcing; ozone hole |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20140604 Date Completed: 20140820 Latest Revision: 20211021 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20231215 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC4032509 |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 |
| PMID: | 24891392 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1364-503X |
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| DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 |