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Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system.
المؤلفون: Siedlecki SA; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA., Kaplan IC; Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA 98112 USA., Hermann AJ; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.; NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA., Nguyen TT; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA., Bond NA; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.; NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA., Newton JA; Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th St, Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98105 USA., Williams GD; Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA 98112 USA., Peterson WT; Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, Oregon 97365 USA., Alin SR; NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA., Feely RA; NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA.
المصدر: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2016 Jun 07; Vol. 6, pp. 27203. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Jun 07.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-
مستخلص: Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO's Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions in Washington and Oregon waters using a combination of a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry and forecasts from NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS). Model performance and predictability were examined for sea surface temperature (SST), bottom temperature, bottom oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state through model hindcasts, reforecast, and forecast comparisons with observations. Results indicate J-SCOPE forecasts have measurable skill on seasonal timescales. Experiments suggest that seasonal forecasting of ocean conditions important for fisheries is possible with the right combination of components. Those components include regional predictability on seasonal timescales of the physical environment from a large-scale model, a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry that simulates seasonal conditions in hindcasts, a relationship with local stakeholders, and a real-time observational network. Multiple efforts and approaches in different regions would advance knowledge to provide additional tools to fishers and other stakeholders.
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تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20160609 Date Completed: 20180402 Latest Revision: 20181113
رمز التحديث: 20221213
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC4895184
DOI: 10.1038/srep27203
PMID: 27273473
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/srep27203