دورية أكاديمية
Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.
| العنوان: | Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis. |
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| المؤلفون: | van Leuken JP; Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands ; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Swart AN; Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Droogers P; Future Water, Wageningen, The Netherlands., van Pul A; Environment and Safety (M&V), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Heederik D; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Havelaar AH; Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands ; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands ; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA. |
| المصدر: | Aerobiologia [Aerobiologia (Bologna)] 2016; Vol. 32 (4), pp. 607-617. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Mar 24. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 9890372 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 0393-5965 (Print) Linking ISSN: 03935965 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Aerobiologia (Bologna) Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: <2001->: Dordrecht, The Netherlands : Kluwer Academic Publishers Original Publication: Bologna, Italy : Pitagora Editrice, |
| مستخلص: | The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation. |
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| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Atmospheric dispersion modelling; Coxiella burnetii; Global radiation; Precipitation; Q fever; Temperature; Wind |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20161129 Latest Revision: 20240326 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240326 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC5106502 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10453-016-9435-5 |
| PMID: | 27890966 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 0393-5965 |
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| DOI: | 10.1007/s10453-016-9435-5 |