دورية أكاديمية
Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity.
| العنوان: | Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity. |
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| المؤلفون: | Holden ZA; US Forest Service Region 1, Missoula, MT 59807; zaholden@fs.fed.us., Swanson A; School of Public and Community Health Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Luce CH; US Forest Service Aquatic Science Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID 83702., Jolly WM; US Forest Service, Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59808., Maneta M; Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Oyler JW; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Warren DA; School of Public and Community Health Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812., Parsons R; US Forest Service, Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59808., Affleck D; Department of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812. |
| المصدر: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2018 Sep 04; Vol. 115 (36), pp. E8349-E8357. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Aug 20. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Forests* , Models, Theoretical* , Rain* , Seasons* , Wildfires*, United States |
| مستخلص: | Western United States wildfire increases have been generally attributed to warming temperatures, either through effects on winter snowpack or summer evaporation. However, near-surface air temperature and evaporative demand are strongly influenced by moisture availability and these interactions and their role in regulating fire activity have never been fully explored. Here we show that previously unnoted declines in summer precipitation from 1979 to 2016 across 31-45% of the forested areas in the western United States are strongly associated with burned area variations. The number of wetting rain days (WRD; days with precipitation ≥2.54 mm) during the fire season partially regulated the temperature and subsequent vapor pressure deficit (VPD) previously implicated as a primary driver of annual wildfire area burned. We use path analysis to decompose the relative influence of declining snowpack, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation on observed fire activity increases. After accounting for interactions, the net effect of WRD anomalies on wildfire area burned was more than 2.5 times greater than the net effect of VPD, and both the WRD and VPD effects were substantially greater than the influence of winter snowpack. These results suggest that precipitation during the fire season exerts the strongest control on burned area either directly through its wetting effects or indirectly through feedbacks to VPD. If these trends persist, decreases in summer precipitation and the associated summertime aridity increases would lead to more burned area across the western United States with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. |
| References: | Science. 1979 Jun 29;204(4400):1380-6. (PMID: 17814182) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 18;113(42):11770-11775. (PMID: 27791053) Nat Commun. 2015 Jul 14;6:7537. (PMID: 26172867) Science. 2006 Aug 18;313(5789):940-3. (PMID: 16825536) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 9;108(32):13165-70. (PMID: 21788495) Ecol Appl. 2009 Jun;19(4):1003-21. (PMID: 19544740) |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: climate change; hydrology; wildfire |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20180822 Date Completed: 20181005 Latest Revision: 20190304 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20221213 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC6130364 |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1802316115 |
| PMID: | 30126983 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1091-6490 |
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| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1802316115 |