دورية أكاديمية
Hundred year projected carbon loads and species compositions for four National Forests in the northwestern USA.
| العنوان: | Hundred year projected carbon loads and species compositions for four National Forests in the northwestern USA. |
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| المؤلفون: | Fekety PA; Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA. patrick.fekety@colostate.edu., Crookston NL; Forestry Research Consultant, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA., Hudak AT; United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1221 South Main Street, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA., Filippelli SK; Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA., Vogeler JC; Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA.; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1476, USA., Falkowski MJ; Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA.; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1476, USA. |
| المصدر: | Carbon balance and management [Carbon Balance Manag] 2020 Mar 28; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 5. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Mar 28. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: SpringerOpen Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101271519 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 1750-0680 (Print) Linking ISSN: 17500680 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Carbon Balance Manag Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: <2016-> : London : SpringerOpen Original Publication: [London] : BioMed Central, 2006- |
| مستخلص: | Background: Forests are an important component of the global carbon balance, and climate sensitive growth and yield models are an essential tool when predicting future forest conditions. In this study, we used the dynamic climate capability of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate future (100 year) forest conditions on four National Forests in the northwestern USA: Payette National Forest (NF), Ochoco NF, Gifford Pinchot NF, and Siuslaw NF. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis field plots, aboveground carbon estimates and species compositions were simulated with Climate-FVS for the period between 2016 and 2116 under a no climate change scenario and a future climate scenario. We included a sensitivity analysis that varied calculated disturbance probabilities and the dClim rule, which is one method used by Climate-FVS to introduce climate-related mortality. The dClim rule initiates mortality when the predicted climate change at a site is greater than the change in climate associated with a predetermined shift in elevation. Results: Results of the simulations indicated the dClim rule influenced future carbon projections more than estimates of disturbance probability. Future aboveground carbon estimates increased and species composition remained stable under the no climate change scenario. The future climate scenario we tested resulted in less carbon at the end of the projections compared to the no climate change scenarios for all cases except when the dClim rule was disengaged on the Payette NF. Under the climate change scenario, species compositions shifted to climatically adapted species or early successional species. Conclusion: This research highlights the need to consider climate projections in long-term planning or future forest conditions may be unexpected. Forest managers and planners could perform similar simulations and use the results as a planning tool when analyzing climate change effects at the National Forest level. |
| References: | Trends Ecol Evol. 2020 Mar;35(3):191-205. (PMID: 31882280) Science. 2006 Aug 18;313(5789):940-3. (PMID: 16825536) Ecol Appl. 2019 Sep;29(6):e01944. (PMID: 31267598) Ecol Appl. 2018 Sep;28(6):1459-1472. (PMID: 29939455) Ecol Lett. 2016 Sep;19(9):1150-8. (PMID: 27465040) Ecosphere. 2019 Feb 20;10(2):e02616. (PMID: 34853712) Science. 2009 Jan 23;323(5913):521-4. (PMID: 19164752) Nat Commun. 2019 Sep 26;10(1):4385. (PMID: 31558795) Carbon Balance Manag. 2014 Feb 04;9(1):1. (PMID: 24495313) Ecol Appl. ;24(7):1626-37. (PMID: 29210227) |
| معلومات مُعتمدة: | NNH15AZ06I NASA Carbon Monitoring Systems |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Climate change; Climate-FVS; Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA); Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS); Forest carbon planning; Modeling; dClim rule |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20200331 Latest Revision: 20240331 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240331 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC7227189 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13021-020-00140-9 |
| PMID: | 32222913 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1750-0680 |
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| DOI: | 10.1186/s13021-020-00140-9 |