دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Estimating the impact of physical distancing measures in containing COVID-19: an empirical analysis.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Estimating the impact of physical distancing measures in containing COVID-19: an empirical analysis.
المؤلفون: Koh WC; Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies, Brunei Darussalam; The World Bank, Washington, DC, United States. Electronic address: wckoh@csps.org.bn., Naing L; PAPRSB Institute of Health Sciences, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei Darussalam., Wong J; Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Brunei Darussalam.
المصدر: International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [Int J Infect Dis] 2020 Nov; Vol. 100, pp. 42-49. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Aug 13.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Canada NLM ID: 9610933 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1878-3511 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 12019712 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Int J Infect Dis Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: Hamilton, ON : Elsevier
Original Publication: Hamilton, ON : Decker, c1996-
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Betacoronavirus* , Psychological Distance*, Coronavirus Infections/*prevention & control , Pandemics/*prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/*prevention & control, COVID-19 ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Travel
مستخلص: Background: Epidemic modelling studies predict that physical distancing is critical in containing COVID-19. However, few empirical studies have validated this finding. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of different physical distancing measures in controlling viral transmission.
Methods: We identified three distinct physical distancing measures with varying intensity and implemented at different times-international travel controls, restrictions on mass gatherings, and lockdown-type measures-based on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R t ) for 142 countries and tracked R t temporally for two weeks following the 100th reported case in each country. We regressed R t on the physical distancing measures and other control variables (income, population density, age structure, and temperature) and performed several robustness checks to validate our findings.
Findings: Complete travel bans and all forms of lockdown-type measures have been effective in reducing average R t over the 14 days following the 100th case. Recommended stay-at-home advisories and partial lockdowns are as effective as complete lockdowns in outbreak control. However, these measures have to be implemented early to be effective. Based on the observed median timing across countries worldwide, lockdown-type measures are considered early if they were instituted about two weeks before the 100th case and travel bans a week before detection of the first case.
Interpretation: A combination of physical distancing measures, if implemented early, can be effective in containing COVID-19-tight border controls to limit importation of cases, encouraging physical distancing, moderately stringent measures such as working from home, and a full lockdown in the case of a probable uncontrolled outbreak.
(Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
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فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Physical distancing; SARS-CoV-2; Transmission
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20200818 Date Completed: 20201201 Latest Revision: 20240331
رمز التحديث: 20240331
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC7423775
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.026
PMID: 32800859
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1878-3511
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.026