دورية أكاديمية
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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence.
المؤلفون: Sherwood SC; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of New South Wales Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia., Webb MJ; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK., Annan JD; Blue Skies Research Ltd Settle UK., Armour KC; University of Washington Seattle WA USA., Forster PM; Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK., Hargreaves JC; Blue Skies Research Ltd Settle UK., Hegerl G; School of Geosciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK., Klein SA; PCMDI-LLNL California Berkeley USA., Marvel KD; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Math Columbia University New York NY USA.; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Rohling EJ; Research School of Earth Sciences Australian National University Canberra ACT Australia.; Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre University of Southampton Southampton UK., Watanabe M; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan., Andrews T; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK., Braconnot P; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, unité mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay Gif sur Yvette France., Bretherton CS; University of Washington Seattle WA USA., Foster GL; Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre University of Southampton Southampton UK., Hausfather Z; Breakthrough Institute Oakland CA USA., von der Heydt AS; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, and Centre for Complex Systems Science Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands., Knutti R; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich Switzerland., Mauritsen T; Department of Meteorology Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden., Norris JR; Scripps Institution of Oceanography La Jolla CA USA., Proistosescu C; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Geology University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana IL USA., Rugenstein M; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Schmidt GA; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Tokarska KB; School of Geosciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK.; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich Switzerland., Zelinka MD; PCMDI-LLNL California Berkeley USA.
المصدر: Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985) [Rev Geophys] 2020 Dec; Vol. 58 (4), pp. e2019RG000678. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 25.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Review
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: American Geophysical Union Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101137089 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 8755-1209 (Print) Linking ISSN: 87551209 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Rev Geophys Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union, c1985-
مستخلص: We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
(©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.)
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فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: Bayesian methods; Climate; climate sensitivity; global warming
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20201005 Latest Revision: 20240329
رمز التحديث: 20240329
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC7524012
DOI: 10.1029/2019RG000678
PMID: 33015673
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:8755-1209
DOI:10.1029/2019RG000678