دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study.
المؤلفون: Simpson H; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Tabah EN; National Yaws, Leishmaniasis, Leprosy and Buruli ulcer Control Programme, Cameroon., Phillips RO; School of Medical Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana., Frimpong M; School of Medical Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana., Maman I; National Reference Laboratory for Buruli Ulcer Disease in Togo, Ecole Supérieure des Techniques Biologiques et Alimentaires (ESTBA), Laboratoire des Sciences Biologiques et des Substances Bioactives, Université de Lomé, Lomé, Togo., Ampadu E; National Buruli Ulcer Control Program, Ghana Health Service, Accra, Ghana., Timothy J; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Saunderson P; Accelerating Integrated Management (AIM) Initiative, Accra, Ghana., Pullan RL; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Cano J; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
المصدر: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2021 Mar 03; Vol. 15 (3), pp. e0009157. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Mar 03 (Print Publication: 2021).
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101291488 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1935-2735 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19352727 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Mycobacterium ulcerans*, Buruli Ulcer/*epidemiology, Africa/epidemiology ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical
مستخلص: Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million. These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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معلومات مُعتمدة: MR/J01477X/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20210303 Date Completed: 20210624 Latest Revision: 20231111
رمز التحديث: 20240628
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC7959670
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009157
PMID: 33657104
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009157