دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Prediction of 90-day mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer using standardized nationwide quality-assurance data.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Prediction of 90-day mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer using standardized nationwide quality-assurance data.
المؤلفون: Vogelsang RP; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Bojesen RD; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark.; Department of Surgery, Slagelse Hospital, Slagelse, Denmark., Hoelmich ER; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Orhan A; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Buzquurz F; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Cai L; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Grube C; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Zahid JA; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Allakhverdiiev E; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark.; Odysseus Data Services Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA., Raskov HH; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Drakos I; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Derian N; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark., Ryan PB; Department of Medical Informatics, Janssen Research & Development LLC, Raritan, New Jersey, USA.; Columbia University, New York, New York, USA., Rijnbeek PR; Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Gögenur I; Center for Surgical Science, Department of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Koege, Denmark.; Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
المصدر: BJS open [BJS Open] 2021 May 07; Vol. 5 (3).
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Oxford University Press Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101722685 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2474-9842 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 24749842 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BJS Open Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: 2021- : [Oxford] : Oxford University Press
Original Publication: [Chichester, West Sussex, England] : John Wiley & Sons Ltd., [2017]-
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Colorectal Neoplasms*/surgery , Digestive System Surgical Procedures*, Cohort Studies ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Risk Assessment
مستخلص: Background: Personalized risk assessment provides opportunities for tailoring treatment, optimizing healthcare resources and improving outcome. The aim of this study was to develop a 90-day mortality-risk prediction model for identification of high- and low-risk patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer.
Methods: This was a nationwide cohort study using records from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database that included all patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression prediction model was developed using 121 pre- and intraoperative variables and internally validated in a hold-out test data set. The accuracy of the model was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration.
Results: In total, 49 607 patients were registered in the database. After exclusion of 16 680 individuals, 32 927 patients were included in the analysis. Overall, 1754 (5.3 per cent) deaths were recorded. Targeting high-risk individuals, the model identified 5.5 per cent of all patients facing a risk of 90-day mortality exceeding 35 per cent, corresponding to a 6.7 times greater risk than the average population. Targeting low-risk individuals, the model identified 20.9 per cent of patients facing a risk less than 0.3 per cent, corresponding to a 17.7 times lower risk compared with the average population. The model exhibited discriminatory power with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 85.3 per cent (95 per cent c.i. 83.6 to 87.0) and excellent calibration with a Brier score of 0.04 and 32 per cent average precision.
Conclusion: Pre- and intraoperative data, as captured in national health registries, can be used to predict 90-day mortality accurately after colorectal cancer surgery.
(© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd.)
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تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20210508 Date Completed: 20211210 Latest Revision: 20220218
رمز التحديث: 20221213
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8105588
DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrab023
PMID: 33963368
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2474-9842
DOI:10.1093/bjsopen/zrab023