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Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.

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العنوان: Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.
المؤلفون: Colón-González FJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Electronic address: felipe.colon@lshtm.ac.uk., Sewe MO; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden., Tompkins AM; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy., Sjödin H; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden., Casallas A; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy., Rocklöv J; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany., Caminade C; Department of Livestock and one Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK., Lowe R; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
المصدر: The Lancet. Planetary health [Lancet Planet Health] 2021 Jul; Vol. 5 (7), pp. e404-e414.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Elsevier B.V Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 101704339 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2542-5196 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 25425196 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Planet Health Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: [Amsterdam] : Elsevier B.V., [2017]-
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Hot Temperature* , Malaria*/epidemiology, Animals ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans
مستخلص: Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.
Methods: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.
Findings: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.
Interpretation: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.
Funding: UK Space Agency, Royal Society, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Swedish Research Council.
Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.
(Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
التعليقات: Erratum in: Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Aug;5(8):e504. (PMID: 34390666)
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معلومات مُعتمدة: United Kingdom DH_ Department of Health
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20210710 Date Completed: 20211125 Latest Revision: 20211125
رمز التحديث: 20221213
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8280459
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
PMID: 34245711
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2542-5196
DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7