دورية أكاديمية
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Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.
المؤلفون: Contreras S; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.; Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Universidad de Chile, Beauchef 851, 8370456 Santiago, Chile., Dehning J; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany., Mohr SB; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany., Bauer S; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany., Spitzner FP; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany., Priesemann V; Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.; Department of Physics, University of Göttingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
المصدر: Science advances [Sci Adv] 2021 Oct 08; Vol. 7 (41), pp. eabg2243. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 08.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101653440 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2375-2548 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 23752548 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Adv Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE; MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science, [2015]-
مستخلص: The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten or fewer new infections per million people. However, stability is endangered if restrictions are relaxed or case numbers grow too high. The latter destabilization marks a tipping point beyond which the spread self-accelerates. We show that a lockdown can reestablish control and that recurring lockdowns are not necessary given sustained, moderate contact reduction. We illustrate how this strategy profits from vaccination and helps mitigate variants of concern. This strategy reduces cumulative cases (and fatalities) four times more than strategies that only avoid hospital collapse. In the long term, immunization, large-scale testing, and international coordination will further facilitate control.
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تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20211008 Latest Revision: 20230403
رمز التحديث: 20230403
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8500516
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg2243
PMID: 34623913
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2375-2548
DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abg2243