دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

The Determinants of the Low COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality Rates in Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: The Determinants of the Low COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality Rates in Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis.
المؤلفون: Bouba Y; Chantal BIYA International Reference Center for Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Management (CIRCB), Yaoundé, Cameroon.; Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Rome 'Tor Vergata', Rome, Italy., Tsinda EK; Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tohoku, Sendai, Japan., Fonkou MDM; UFR IM2AG, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France., Mmbando GS; Graduate School of Life Sciences, University of Tohoku, Sendai, Japan., Bragazzi NL; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada., Kong JD; Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
المصدر: Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2021 Oct 21; Vol. 9, pp. 751197. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 21 (Print Publication: 2021).
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office
مواضيع طبية MeSH: COVID-19* , Pandemics*, Africa/epidemiology ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; SARS-CoV-2
مستخلص: Background: More than 1 year after the beginning of the international spread of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), the reasons explaining its apparently lower reported burden in Africa are still to be fully elucidated. Few studies previously investigated the potential reasons explaining this epidemiological observation using data at the level of a few African countries. However, an updated analysis considering the various epidemiological waves and variables across an array of categories, with a focus on African countries might help to better understand the COVID-19 pandemic on the continent. Thus, we investigated the potential reasons for the persistently lower transmission and mortality rates of COVID-19 in Africa. Methods: Data were collected from publicly available and well-known online sources. The cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per 1 million population reported by the African countries up to February 2021 were used to estimate the transmission and mortality rates of COVID-19, respectively. The covariates were collected across several data sources: clinical/diseases data, health system performance, demographic parameters, economic indicators, climatic, pollution, and radiation variables, and use of social media. The collinearities were corrected using variance inflation factor (VIF) and selected variables were fitted to a multiple regression model using the R statistical package. Results: Our model (adjusted R-squared: 0.7) found that the number of COVID-19 tests per 1 million population, GINI index, global health security (GHS) index, and mean body mass index (BMI) were significantly associated ( P < 0.05) with COVID-19 cases per 1 million population. No association was found between the median life expectancy, the proportion of the rural population, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage rate. On the other hand, diabetes prevalence, number of nurses, and GHS index were found to be significantly associated with COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population (adjusted R-squared of 0.5). Moreover, the median life expectancy and lower respiratory infections rate showed a trend towards significance. No association was found with the BCG coverage or communicable disease burden. Conclusions: Low health system capacity, together with some clinical and socio-economic factors were the predictors of the reported burden of COVID-19 in Africa. Our results emphasize the need for Africa to strengthen its overall health system capacity to efficiently detect and respond to public health crises.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
(Copyright © 2021 Bouba, Tsinda, Fonkou, Mmbando, Bragazzi and Kong.)
References: Science. 2020 Aug 7;369(6504):624-626. (PMID: 32764055)
Nat Med. 2020 Aug;26(8):1205-1211. (PMID: 32546824)
Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020 Sep - Oct;14(5):1149-1151. (PMID: 32668401)
Science. 2016 Apr 22;352(6284):aaf1098. (PMID: 27102489)
JAMA. 2020 Apr 7;323(13):1239-1242. (PMID: 32091533)
Nat Immunol. 2018 Sep;19(9):963-972. (PMID: 30082830)
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Dec;20(12):1370. (PMID: 32777206)
J Clin Med. 2020 Apr 16;9(4):. (PMID: 32316118)
Glob Health Action. 2020 Dec 31;13(1):1816044. (PMID: 33012269)
Front Nutr. 2020 Nov 19;7:597600. (PMID: 33330597)
Science. 2020 Oct 30;370(6516):564-570. (PMID: 32912998)
N Engl J Med. 2020 Feb 20;382(8):727-733. (PMID: 31978945)
J Infect Dis. 2021 Mar 3;223(5):866-875. (PMID: 32644119)
Cell Host Microbe. 2018 Jan 10;23(1):89-100.e5. (PMID: 29324233)
Cancer Biol Med. 2021 Feb 15;18(1):298-307. (PMID: 33628602)
Science. 2021 Mar 26;371(6536):. (PMID: 33531384)
Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul 16;9(1):96. (PMID: 32678037)
N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 30;382(18):1708-1720. (PMID: 32109013)
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(9):. (PMID: 32156327)
Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Aug;8(8):e1003-e1017. (PMID: 32553130)
Math Biosci. 2020 Oct;328:108431. (PMID: 32738248)
N Engl J Med. 2020 Jul 16;383(3):e11. (PMID: 32302075)
Front Public Health. 2020 Jul 10;8:367. (PMID: 32754568)
Science. 2020 Aug 14;369(6505):756-757. (PMID: 32792376)
Medicine (Baltimore). 2021 May 7;100(18):e25837. (PMID: 33950996)
Science. 2014 Sep 26;345(6204):1251086. (PMID: 25258085)
Genes Immun. 2020 Aug;21(4):269-272. (PMID: 32759995)
Nat Med. 2020 Jul;26(7):999-1003. (PMID: 32528154)
Arch Bone Jt Surg. 2020 Apr;8(Suppl 1):319-320. (PMID: 32733987)
Bull Natl Res Cent. 2021;45(1):133. (PMID: 34335014)
Biology (Basel). 2020 Nov 03;9(11):. (PMID: 33153015)
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Dec;20(12):1368-1370. (PMID: 32618281)
J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2017 Oct;140(4):1068-1078.e6. (PMID: 28196762)
Rev Cardiovasc Med. 2020 Sep 30;21(3):385-397. (PMID: 33070543)
J Antibiot (Tokyo). 2020 Sep;73(9):593-602. (PMID: 32533071)
BMJ Glob Health. 2020 May;5(5):. (PMID: 32451366)
Pharmacol Res. 2020 Aug;158:104901. (PMID: 32405226)
Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Jan;102:483-488. (PMID: 33010461)
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2020 Aug;166:108303. (PMID: 32623038)
BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Feb;6(2):. (PMID: 33627363)
Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2021 Jun;9(6):350-359. (PMID: 33932335)
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 7;15(10):e0239398. (PMID: 33027257)
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2020 Oct 08;11:582936. (PMID: 33133024)
Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2020 Sep;8(9):782-792. (PMID: 32687793)
Metabolism. 2020 Dec;113:154378. (PMID: 33002478)
Clin Drug Investig. 2018 Aug;38(8):653-671. (PMID: 29737455)
Lancet. 2020 Mar 14;395(10227):841-842. (PMID: 32113508)
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Apr;134(2):223-30. (PMID: 16490124)
BMJ Open. 2021 Feb 18;11(2):e044618. (PMID: 33602714)
Lancet. 2020 Mar 14;395(10227):871-877. (PMID: 32087820)
Microorganisms. 2020 Jan 08;8(1):. (PMID: 31936284)
BMC Med. 2020 Oct 14;18(1):324. (PMID: 33050951)
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Nov;27(33):42115-42123. (PMID: 32710359)
Lancet Respir Med. 2020 Apr;8(4):e21. (PMID: 32171062)
EMBO Mol Med. 2020 Jun 8;12(6):e12661. (PMID: 32379923)
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2020 Sep;24(18):9753-9759. (PMID: 33015822)
World Dev. 2021 Feb;138:105251. (PMID: 33106726)
Lancet Infect Dis. 2003 Nov;3(11):722-7. (PMID: 14592603)
Euro Surveill. 2020 May;25(18):. (PMID: 32400361)
PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0251170. (PMID: 33956882)
New Microbes New Infect. 2020 Nov;38:100760. (PMID: 32983542)
One Health. 2021 Jun;12:100235. (PMID: 33723518)
J Med Virol. 2020 Nov;92(11):2465-2472. (PMID: 32525568)
Hum Ecol Interdiscip J. 2020;48(5):633-638. (PMID: 33100471)
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: Africa; COVID-19; cross-country analysis; mortality; transmission
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20211108 Date Completed: 20211110 Latest Revision: 20240818
رمز التحديث: 20240818
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8568130
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.751197
PMID: 34746085
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2296-2565
DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2021.751197