دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020.
المؤلفون: Friedsam AM; Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany., Brady OJ; Centre of Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK., Pilic A; Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany., Dobler G; Department of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces, 80937 Munich, Germany., Hellenbrand W; Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany., Nygren TM; Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestraße 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany.
المصدر: Microorganisms [Microorganisms] 2022 Mar 17; Vol. 10 (3). Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Mar 17.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: MDPI AG Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101625893 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 2076-2607 (Print) Linking ISSN: 20762607 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Microorganisms Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, [2013]-
مستخلص: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018-2020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0-93%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.
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معلومات مُعتمدة: MR/V031112/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: Baden-Wuerttemberg; Bavaria; Germany; ecological niche modelling; risk mapping; spatial epidemiology; tick-borne encephalitis
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20220326 Latest Revision: 20240306
رمز التحديث: 20240306
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC8953713
DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms10030643
PMID: 35336218
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2076-2607
DOI:10.3390/microorganisms10030643