| المؤلفون: |
Shi H; Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA., Jin FF; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA., Wills RCJ; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA., Jacox MG; Environmental Research Division, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA 93940, USA.; Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO 80305, USA., Amaya DJ; Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO 80305, USA., Black BA; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA., Rykaczewski RR; Ecosystem Sciences Division, NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA.; Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA., Bograd SJ; Environmental Research Division, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA 93940, USA., García-Reyes M; Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA., Sydeman WJ; Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA. |
| مستخلص: |
Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change. |
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