دورية أكاديمية
Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania.
العنوان: | Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania. |
---|---|
المؤلفون: | Ngowo HS; Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania. hngowo@ihi.or.tz.; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. hngowo@ihi.or.tz., Okumu FO; Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.; School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Braamfontein, Republic of South Africa.; School of Life Science and Bioengineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science & Technology, Arusha, Tanzania., Hape EE; Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK., Mshani IH; Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK., Ferguson HM; Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK., Matthiopoulos J; Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. |
المصدر: | Malaria journal [Malar J] 2022 Jun 03; Vol. 21 (1), pp. 161. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jun 03. |
نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
اللغة: | English |
بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101139802 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1475-2875 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14752875 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Malar J Subsets: MEDLINE |
أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2002- |
مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Anopheles*/physiology , Malaria*/prevention & control, Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Female ; Mosquito Vectors/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Tanzania |
مستخلص: | Background: It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized Anopheles gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will: (1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, (2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and (3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may differ from that of An. gambiae sensu lato. Methods: A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus sensu stricto collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. The effects of density dependence and seasonality were measured through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates. Results: The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An. funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations. Conclusion: The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species. (© 2022. The Author(s).) |
References: | Oecologia. 2009 Aug;161(2):227-39. (PMID: 19484269) Parasit Vectors. 2012 May 30;5:101. (PMID: 22647493) J Vector Ecol. 2007 Jun;32(1):112-7. (PMID: 17633431) Wellcome Open Res. 2017 Oct 24;2:102. (PMID: 29552642) Parasit Vectors. 2010 Dec 31;3:122. (PMID: 21192834) Parasit Vectors. 2012 Apr 04;5:69. (PMID: 22475528) Malar J. 2010 Feb 26;9:62. (PMID: 20187956) Malar J. 2012 Jul 06;11:226. (PMID: 22770378) Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2000 Jun;62(6):726-32. (PMID: 11304064) Malar J. 2010 Jul 09;9:196. (PMID: 20618930) Bull Entomol Res. 2007 Dec;97(6):599-605. (PMID: 17997873) Malar J. 2014 Aug 24;13:331. (PMID: 25150840) Ecol Appl. 2006 Feb;16(1):74-86. (PMID: 16705962) Malar J. 2008 Aug 20;7:158. (PMID: 18715508) Sci Rep. 2013;3:1300. (PMID: 23419595) Parasit Vectors. 2016 Nov 2;9(1):566. (PMID: 27806728) Med Vet Entomol. 2005 Sep;19(3):271-5. (PMID: 16134975) Med Vet Entomol. 2004 Sep;18(3):301-5. (PMID: 15347399) Malar J. 2011 Jul 28;10:207. (PMID: 21798023) Malar J. 2020 Jan 15;19(1):22. (PMID: 31941508) PLoS One. 2017 May 18;12(5):e0177807. (PMID: 28542335) Parasit Vectors. 2013 Dec 05;6:340. (PMID: 24304974) Malar J. 2015 Sep 15;14:344. (PMID: 26370361) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Feb 3;112(5):1464-9. (PMID: 25605919) Acta Trop. 2009 Feb;109(2):124-30. (PMID: 18760989) East Afr Med J. 1953 Apr;30(4):129-35. (PMID: 13060242) Parasit Vectors. 2020 May 7;13(1):233. (PMID: 32381111) Trop Med Int Health. 2004 Dec;9(12):1274-89. (PMID: 15598259) Malar J. 2005 Sep 30;4:49. (PMID: 16197541) J Med Entomol. 1994 May;31(3):333-9. (PMID: 8057306) Parasit Vectors. 2013 Jun 07;6:172. (PMID: 23758937) Malar J. 2008 Jan 25;7:20. (PMID: 18218148) Proc Biol Sci. 2013 Jan 08;280(1754):20122823. (PMID: 23303548) Sci Rep. 2018 Sep 17;8(1):13949. (PMID: 30224714) Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2007 Jul;77(1):29-35. (PMID: 17620627) Malar J. 2012 Dec 19;11:425. (PMID: 23253167) Malar J. 2009 Nov 26;8:268. (PMID: 19941637) Med Vet Entomol. 2004 Jun;18(2):174-9. (PMID: 15189243) Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Sep 22;281(1791):20141336. (PMID: 25100702) Sci Rep. 2020 Sep 3;10(1):14527. (PMID: 32883976) J Med Entomol. 2002 Jan;39(1):162-72. (PMID: 11931252) Malar J. 2014 Apr 27;13:160. (PMID: 24767543) Malar J. 2011 Jul 07;10:183. (PMID: 21736735) J Infect Dis. 2021 Apr 27;223(12 Suppl 2):S143-S154. (PMID: 33906218) Acta Trop. 1995 Mar;59(1):1-18. (PMID: 7785522) J Anim Ecol. 2013 Jan;82(1):166-74. (PMID: 23163565) PLoS Med. 2010 Aug 10;7(8):. (PMID: 20711482) Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Aug;19(8):2373-80. (PMID: 23630036) Acta Trop. 2009 Feb;109(2):118-23. (PMID: 19013420) Ecol Appl. 2008 Dec;18(8):2028-40. (PMID: 19263895) Parasit Vectors. 2013 Apr 16;6:104. (PMID: 23590860) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Aug 24;107(34):15135-9. (PMID: 20696913) Malar J. 2020 Jun 23;19(1):219. (PMID: 32576200) J Med Entomol. 2001 Mar;38(2):282-8. (PMID: 11296836) Malar J. 2011 Apr 09;10:80. (PMID: 21477321) Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Oct 22;278(1721):3142-51. (PMID: 21389034) Malar J. 2021 Mar 12;20(1):148. (PMID: 33712003) Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Apr;90(4):597-604. (PMID: 24470562) Tanzan Health Res Bull. 2005 Sep;7(3):117-24. (PMID: 16941936) J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1990 Mar;6(1):105-9. (PMID: 2324714) Bull World Health Organ. 1969 Apr;40(4):531-45. (PMID: 5306719) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Aug 9;113(32):8975-80. (PMID: 27402740) Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2005 Aug;100(5):515-20. (PMID: 16184229) |
معلومات مُعتمدة: | OPP1099295 United States HHMI Howard Hughes Medical Institute; INV-002138 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation |
فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Abundance; Anopheles funestus; Density dependence; Population dynamic; Seasonality; State space model |
تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20220606 Date Completed: 20220608 Latest Revision: 20220716 |
رمز التحديث: | 20231215 |
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC9166306 |
DOI: | 10.1186/s12936-022-04189-4 |
PMID: | 35658961 |
قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
تدمد: | 1475-2875 |
---|---|
DOI: | 10.1186/s12936-022-04189-4 |