Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان:	Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury.
المؤلفون:	Shearman TM; Tall Timbers, Tallahassee, Florida, USA., Varner JM; Tall Timbers, Tallahassee, Florida, USA., Hood SM; USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, Montana, USA., van Mantgem PJ; U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Arcata, California, USA., Cansler CA; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA., Wright M; U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Arcata, California, USA.
المصدر:	Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Ecol Appl] 2023 Mar; Vol. 33 (2), pp. e2760. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 08.
نوع المنشور:	Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
اللغة:	English
بيانات الدورية:	Publisher: Ecological Society of America Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9889808 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1051-0761 (Print) Linking ISSN: 10510761 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ecol Appl Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة:	Publication: Washington, D.C. : Ecological Society of America Original Publication: Tempe, AZ : The Society, 1991-
مواضيع طبية MeSH:	Pinus* , Fires* , Coleoptera/physiology , Pseudotsuga/physiology, Animals ; Pinus ponderosa/physiology
مستخلص:	A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergone limited evaluation of how injury level and time since fire interact to influence model accuracy and predictor variable importance. Less severe injuries potentially serve as an indicator for vulnerability to additional stressors such as bark beetle attack or moisture stress. We used a collection of 164,293 individual tree records to examine post-fire tree mortality in eight western USA conifers: Abies concolor, Abies grandis, Calocedrus decurrens, Larix occidentalis, Pinus contorta, Pinus lambertiana, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii. We evaluated the importance of fire injury predictors on discriminating between surviving trees versus immediate and delayed post-fire mortality. We fit balanced random forest models for each species using cumulative tree mortality from 1 to 5-years post-fire. We compared these results to multi-class random forest models using first-year mortality, 2-5-year mortality, and survival 5-years post-fire as a response variable. Crown volume scorched, diameter at breast height, and relative bark char height, were used as predictor variables. The cumulative mortality models all predicted trees that died within 1-year of fire with high accuracy but failed to predict 2-5-year mortality. The multi-class models were an improvement but had lower accuracy for predicting 2-5-year mortality. Multi-class model accuracies ranged from 85% to 95% across all species for predicting 1-year post-fire mortality, 42%-71% for predicting 2-5-year mortality, and 64%-85% for predicting trees that lived past 5-years. Our study highlights the differences in tree species tolerance to fire injury and suggests that including second-order predictors such as beetle attack or climatic water stress before and after fire will be critical to improve accuracy and better understand the mechanisms and patterns of fire-caused tree death. Random forest models have potential for management applications such as post-fire harvesting and simulating future stand dynamics. (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)
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معلومات مُعتمدة:	16-01-04-8 Joint Fire Science Program
فهرسة مساهمة:	Keywords: Abies; Calocedrus; FTM database; Larix; Pinus; Pseudotsuga; crown scorch; delayed mortality; fire-caused injury; post-fire tree mortality; random forest; wildland fire
تواريخ الأحداث:	Date Created: 20221011 Date Completed: 20230303 Latest Revision: 20230321
رمز التحديث:	20230321
DOI:	10.1002/eap.2760
PMID:	36218008
قاعدة البيانات:	MEDLINE

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تدمد:	1051-0761
DOI:	10.1002/eap.2760