Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان:	Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.
المؤلفون:	Stewart FEC; Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada.; Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada., Micheletti T; Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada., Cumming SG; Department of Wood and Forest Science, Laval University, Québec, QC, Canada., Barros C; Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada., Chubaty AM; FOR-CAST Research & Analytics, Calgary, AB, Canada., Dookie AL; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC, Canada., Duclos I; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, NT, Canada., Eddy I; Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada., Haché S; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, NT, Canada., Hodson J; Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, Yellowknife, NT, Canada., Hughes J; Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Johnson CA; Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Leblond M; Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Schmiegelow FKA; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.; Yukon University, Yukon Research Centre, Whitehorse, YT, Canada., Tremblay JA; Department of Wood and Forest Science, Laval University, Québec, QC, Canada.; Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Québec, QC, Canada., McIntire EJB; Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada.; Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
المصدر:	Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Ecol Appl] 2023 Apr; Vol. 33 (3), pp. e2816. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 07.
نوع المنشور:	Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة:	English
بيانات الدورية:	Publisher: Ecological Society of America Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9889808 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1051-0761 (Print) Linking ISSN: 10510761 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ecol Appl Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة:	Publication: Washington, D.C. : Ecological Society of America Original Publication: Tempe, AZ : The Society, 1991-
مواضيع طبية MeSH:	Reindeer*, Animals ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Forests
مستخلص:	Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. (© 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources.)
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فهرسة مساهمة:	Keywords: Rangifer; SpaDES; anthropogenic change; climate change; critical habitat; ecological forecasting; fire; species at risk; vegetation; woodland boreal caribou
تواريخ الأحداث:	Date Created: 20230208 Date Completed: 20230404 Latest Revision: 20230405
رمز التحديث:	20230406
DOI:	10.1002/eap.2816
PMID:	36752658
قاعدة البيانات:	MEDLINE

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تدمد:	1051-0761
DOI:	10.1002/eap.2816