دورية أكاديمية
Potential and limitations of machine meta-learning (ensemble) methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality in a large inhospital Brazilian dataset.
| العنوان: | Potential and limitations of machine meta-learning (ensemble) methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality in a large inhospital Brazilian dataset. |
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| المؤلفون: | de Paiva BBM; Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Pereira PD; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.; Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, building 21, room 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil., de Andrade CMV; Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Gomes VMR; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Souza-Silva MVR; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Martins KPMP; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Sales TLS; Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, R. Sebastião Gonçalves Coelho, 400, Divinópolis, Brazil., de Carvalho RLR; Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, building 21, room 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Pires MC; Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Ramos LEF; Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Silva RT; Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Freitas Martins Vieira A; Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Al. Ezequiel Dias, 275, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Nunes AGS; Hospital UNIMED BH, Av. Do Contorno, 3097, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Oliveira Jorge A; Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves, R. das Gabirobas, 01, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Oliveira Maurílio A; Hospital São João de Deus, R. do Cobre, 800, São João de Deus, Brazil., Scotton ALBA; Hospital Regional Antônio Dias, R. Maj. Gote, 1231, Patos de Minas, Brazil., da Silva CTCA; Hospital Santo Antônio, Pç. Dr. Márcio Carvalho Lopes Filho, 501, Curvelo, Brazil., Cimini CCR; Hospital Santa Rosália, R. Dr. Onófre, 575, Teófilo Otoni, Brazil., Ponce D; Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho', Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil., Pereira EC; Hospital SOS Cárdio, Rod. SC-401, 121, Florianópolis, Brazil., Manenti ERF; Hospital Mãe de Deus, R. José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Rodrigues FD; Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Anschau F; Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Botoni FA; Hospital Julia Kubitschek, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2745, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Bartolazzi F; Hospital Santo Antônio, Pç. Dr. Márcio Carvalho Lopes Filho, 501, Curvelo, Brazil., Grizende GMS; Hospital Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Belo Horizonte, Av. Francisco Sales, 1111, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Noal HC; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil., Duani H; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Gomes IM; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Costa JHSM; Hospital Márcio Cunha, Av. Kiyoshi Tsunawaki, 48, Ipatinga, Brazil., di Sabatino Santos Guimarães J; Hospital Julia Kubitschek, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2745, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Tupinambás JT; Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, R. Formiga, 50, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Rugolo JM; Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho', Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil., Batista JDL; Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, Av. Fernando Machado, 108E, Chapecó, Brazil., de Alvarenga JC; Hospital João XXIII, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 400, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Chatkin JM; Hospital São Lucas PUCRS, Av. Ipiranga, 6690, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Ruschel KB; Hospital Mãe de Deus, R. José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Zandoná LB; Hospital Bruno Born, Av. Benjamin Constant, 881, Lajeado, Brazil., Pinheiro LS; Hospital Santa Rosália, R. Dr. Onófre, 575, Teófilo Otoni, Brazil., Menezes LSM; Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, R. Formiga, 50, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.; Hospital Luxemburgo, R. Gentios, 1350, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Oliveira LMC; Hospital Universitário Ciências Médicas, R. dos Aimorés, 2896, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Kopittke L; Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Assis LA; Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Av. Dom José Gaspar, 500, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Marques LM; Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Al. Ezequiel Dias, 275, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Raposo MC; Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, R. Sebastião Gonçalves Coelho, 400, Divinópolis, Brazil., Floriani MA; Hospital Moinhos de Vento, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil.; Moinhos Research Institute, 910 Ramiro Barcelos Street, 5 floor, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Bicalho MAC; Fundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais-FHEMIG, Cidade Administrativa de Minas Gerais, Edifício Gerais, 13rd floor, Rod. Papa João Paulo II, 3777, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Nogueira MCA; Hospitais da Rede Mater Dei, R. Gonçalves Dias, 2700, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Oliveira NR; Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Ziegelmann PK; Hospital Tacchini, R. Dr. José Mário Mônaco, 358, Bento Gonçalves, Brazil., Paraiso PG; Instituto Orizonti, Pç. Engenheiro Flávio Gutierrez, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Lima Martelli PJ; Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, 1235, Recife, Brazil., Senger R; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil., Menezes RM; Hospital Santa Cruz, R. Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil., Francisco SC; Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, R. Dona Luiza, 311, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Araújo SF; Hospital Semper, Al. Ezequiel Dias, 389, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Kurtz T; Hospital Santa Cruz, R. Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil., Fereguetti TO; Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Oliveira TC; Hospital Universitário Canoas, Av. Farroupilha, 8001, São José, Canoas, Brazil., Ribeiro YCNMB; Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, R. Dona Luiza, 311, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Ramires YC; Hospital Bruno Born, Av. Benjamin Constant, 881, Lajeado, Brazil., Lima MCPB; Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, R. Dois, Ouro Preto, Brazil., Carneiro M; Hospital Santa Cruz, R. Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil., Bezerra AFB; Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, 1235, Recife, Brazil., Schwarzbold AV; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil., de Moura Costa AS; Hospitais da Rede Mater Dei, R. Gonçalves Dias, 2700, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Farace BL; Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves, R. das Gabirobas, 01, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Silveira DV; Hospital UNIMED BH, Av. Do Contorno, 3097, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Almeida Cenci EP; Hospital Universitário Canoas, Av. Farroupilha, 8001, São José, Canoas, Brazil., Lucas FB; Hospital Santo Antônio, Pç. Dr. Márcio Carvalho Lopes Filho, 501, Curvelo, Brazil., Aranha FG; Hospital SOS Cárdio, Rod. SC-401, 121, Florianópolis, Brazil., Bastos GAN; Hospital Moinhos de Vento, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Vietta GG; Hospital SOS Cárdio, Rod. SC-401, 121, Florianópolis, Brazil., Nascimento GF; Hospital UNIMED BH, Av. Do Contorno, 3097, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Vianna HR; Hospital Universitário Ciências Médicas, R. dos Aimorés, 2896, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Guimarães HC; Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves, R. das Gabirobas, 01, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., de Morais JDP; Hospital Universitário Ciências Médicas, R. dos Aimorés, 2896, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Moreira LB; Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil., de Oliveira LS; Hospital Santa Rosália, R. Dr. Onófre, 575, Teófilo Otoni, Brazil., de Deus Sousa L; Hospital Regional Antônio Dias, R. Maj. Gote, 1231, Patos de Minas, Brazil., de Souza Viana L; Hospital Márcio Cunha, Av. Kiyoshi Tsunawaki, 48, Ipatinga, Brazil., de Souza Cabral MA; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Ferreira MAP; Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil., de Godoy MF; Hospital São Lucas PUCRS, Av. Ipiranga, 6690, Porto Alegre, Brazil., de Figueiredo MP; Hospital Santo Antônio, Pç. Dr. Márcio Carvalho Lopes Filho, 501, Curvelo, Brazil., Guimarães-Junior MH; Hospital Márcio Cunha, Av. Kiyoshi Tsunawaki, 48, Ipatinga, Brazil., de Paula de Sordi MA; Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho', Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil., da Cunha Severino Sampaio N; Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Assaf PL; Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, R. Dona Luiza, 311, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Lutkmeier R; Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil., Valacio RA; Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, R. Formiga, 50, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Finger RG; Hospital Regional do Oeste, R. Florianópolis, 1448 E, Chapecó, Brazil., de Freitas R; Hospital São João de Deus, R. do Cobre, 800, São João de Deus, Brazil., Guimarães SMM; Hospital Semper, Al. Ezequiel Dias, 389, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Oliveira TF; Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, R. Formiga, 50, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Diniz THO; Hospital São João de Deus, R. do Cobre, 800, São João de Deus, Brazil., Gonçalves MA; Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil., Marcolino MS; Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, building 21, room 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil. milenamarc@gmail.com.; Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. milenamarc@gmail.com.; Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 110 room 107. Santa Efigênia, Belo Horizonte, MG, CEP 30130-100, Brazil. milenamarc@gmail.com. |
| المصدر: | Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2023 Mar 01; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 3463. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 01. |
| نوع المنشور: | Multicenter Study; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | COVID-19*, Adult ; Humans ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Brazil ; Hospitals ; Hospitalization ; Machine Learning |
| مستخلص: | The majority of early prediction scores and methods to predict COVID-19 mortality are bound by methodological flaws and technological limitations (e.g., the use of a single prediction model). Our aim is to provide a thorough comparative study that tackles those methodological issues, considering multiple techniques to build mortality prediction models, including modern machine learning (neural) algorithms and traditional statistical techniques, as well as meta-learning (ensemble) approaches. This study used a dataset from a multicenter cohort of 10,897 adult Brazilian COVID-19 patients, admitted from March/2020 to November/2021, including patients [median age 60 (interquartile range 48-71), 46% women]. We also proposed new original population-based meta-features that have not been devised in the literature. Stacking has shown to achieve the best results reported in the literature for the death prediction task, improving over previous state-of-the-art by more than 46% in Recall for predicting death, with AUROC 0.826 and MacroF1 of 65.4%. The newly proposed meta-features were highly discriminative of death, but fell short in producing large improvements in final prediction performance, demonstrating that we are possibly on the limits of the prediction capabilities that can be achieved with the current set of ML techniques and (meta-)features. Finally, we investigated how the trained models perform on different hospitals, showing that there are indeed large differences in classifier performance between different hospitals, further making the case that errors are produced by factors that cannot be modeled with the current predictors. (© 2023. The Author(s).) |
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| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20230301 Date Completed: 20230303 Latest Revision: 20230419 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20230419 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC9975879 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-023-28579-z |
| PMID: | 36859446 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2045-2322 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-023-28579-z |