دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.
المؤلفون: Pigot AL; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK. a.pigot@ucl.ac.uk., Merow C; Eversource Energy Center and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA., Wilson A; Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA., Trisos CH; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
المصدر: Nature ecology & evolution [Nat Ecol Evol] 2023 Jul; Vol. 7 (7), pp. 1060-1071. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 May 18.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Springer Nature Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101698577 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2397-334X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 2397334X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Ecol Evol Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: [London] : Springer Nature
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Climate Change* , Global Warming*, Temperature ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization
مستخلص: Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.
(© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)
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سلسلة جزيئية: figshare 10.6084/m9.figshare.22723889
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20230518 Date Completed: 20230712 Latest Revision: 20231219
رمز التحديث: 20231220
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02070-4
PMID: 37202503
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2397-334X
DOI:10.1038/s41559-023-02070-4