دورية أكاديمية
Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.
| العنوان: | Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia. |
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| المؤلفون: | Colón-González FJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, NW1 2BE, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk., Gibb R; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK., Khan K; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 3H2, Canada.; BlueDot, Toronto, ON, M5J 1A7, Canada., Watts A; BlueDot, Toronto, ON, M5J 1A7, Canada.; Esri Canada, Toronto, ON, M3C 3R8, Canada., Lowe R; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, 08034, Spain.; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, 08010, Spain., Brady OJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. |
| المصدر: | Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2023 Sep 06; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 5439. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Sep 06. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Acclimatization* , Dengue*/epidemiology, Humans ; Incidence ; Cambodia/epidemiology ; Thailand/epidemiology |
| مستخلص: | The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region. (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.) |
| التعليقات: | Erratum in: Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 16;14(1):6518. (PMID: 37845219) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | MR/V031112/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20230906 Date Completed: 20230908 Latest Revision: 20240306 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240306 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10482941 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y |
| PMID: | 37673859 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2041-1723 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y |